A few days ago, in this same space, I stated that . I indicated, however, that there would obviously be impacts for the region.
Well, here we are: Donald Trump won a significant victory and, until the publication of this article, the Republicans are on track to control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
I do not intend to address the reasons for his victory. But I believe it is clear that, both in the United States and in Latin America, the conservative wave that began in the last decade is far from over. The frustrated re-election attempts of Donald Trump, in 2020, and Jair Bolsonaro, in 2022, had circumstantial, rather than structural, connotations, with the mismanagement of the pandemic being a variable common to both.
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The main risk that Trump’s return creates in Brazil is widely known: the resumption of tariffs against strategic sectors, such as agriculture and steel. Furthermore, the economic policy of the future American government could generate inflationary movements in the long term, possibly putting pressure on the basic interest rate domestically. In this sense, the fiscal agenda was already imposing itself on the Lula government, after the Republican victory.
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Furthermore, it is expected that the . This does not mean that this will lead to the amnesty of the former Brazilian president and, therefore, his presidential candidacy. There are many interested in keeping him ineligible, including supposed allies.
Regardless of Jair Bolsonaro’s legal-political future, the increase in his credibility, driven by the Trumpist victory, will intensify the pressure on the Lula government.
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This is one for a government that has been demonstrating difficulties in connecting with portions of the population, as evidenced by this year’s municipal elections. Since it began, Lula 3 has lived on good memories, recycling successful agendas in the past, but which no longer respond to the country’s current socioeconomic challenges.
In this sense, it draws even more attention to the final stretch of the campaign. Involvement in the electoral process of a foreign nation is in itself a diplomatic mistake. But it becomes even more serious in the case of a government that, less than a month ago, saw its own country tilt to the right.
In general terms, Donald Trump’s victory will not have major effects on Brazil. Brasília and Washington maintain political, economic and cultural ties that are not only solid, but bicentennial. For President Lula, however, the reenergization of the Bolsonarists, boosted by the Trumpist movement, represents at the same time an opportunity and a challenge to lift the government out of the relative lethargy in which it finds itself.
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* Thiago Schwinke Vidal is director of Political Analysis at Prospectiva Public Affairs Lat.Am. He is a political scientist and has a master’s degree in public policy from the University of Brasília (UnB), and a specialist (MBA) in government relations from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV).
