Soon after Donald Trump’s victory, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and his allies began to defend that from next year the relationship with the United States of America (USA) be marked by pragmatism. Despite this, the assessment within the Palácio do Planalto is that the Republican’s victory should have impacts in several areas in Brazil.
In the field of relations between the two countries, the Itamaraty Palace follows from now on the movements regarding the secretariat choices that will be set up by Trump. Brazilian diplomacy believes that, based on the profiles presented by the elected president, it will be possible to measure the style of government that will be adopted starting next year.
One of the names mentioned in the international press to take over as Secretary of State in the Trump administration is Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, who last year accused American President Joe Biden of not having applied sanctions to Brazil when Lula allowed two warships Iranians, targets of US sanctions, dock in the port of Rio de Janeiro in February 2023. In this scenario, the United States may start to adopt a more incisive stance against Lula’s nods to Iran.
During the North American election campaign, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had already been in contact with Trump’s team. In 2023, Brazilian exports to the North American territory totaled US$36.9 billion. The country is Brazil’s second largest partner in the exchange of goods — behind only China, and Brazil’s eventual accession to China’s New Silk Road could also generate friction in the relationship with the United States.
After Lula said between the lines that Trump in the White House meant the return of “fascism and Nazism with a different face” and supported Democrat Kamala Harris, the government began to adopt caution and assess what the direct impacts on national politics will be with the change. command at the White House. After recognizing the Republican’s victory through a post on social media, the Brazilian president said in an interview with Rede TV!, the full text of which will be broadcast this Sunday (10), that he hopes Trump will establish a “civilized” relationship with Brazil.
“I hope that the coexistence will be the civilized coexistence that I already had with Bush – who was from the Republican Party – that I already had with Obama, that I already had with Biden. This is the relationship I want to establish, a relationship between two heads of state, each one represents their country, each one has their own national interests”, said Lula.
The main fear on the part of Palácio do Planalto is how Trump’s return to the USA will impact the Brazilian right. Even during the dispute, parliamentarians who went to monitor the counting of the North American election were already showing enthusiasm with the effect of the Republican’s victory.
“The world continues its shift to the right and I am sure that in 2026 we will be back with Bolsonaro”, said deputy Paulo Bilynskyj (PL-SP), who went to the United States to follow the counting day. The former president was declared ineligible by the Brazilian Electoral Court until 2030, but there is an expectation on the right that the situation will be reviewed or changed through the Legislature.
“Congress is the way to almost everything. It is the most important Power”, said Bolsonaro in an interview with Globo when asked about the possibility of reversing his ineligibility.
Planalto wants to contain the effects of Trump’s victory on the Brazilian right
The assessment among Lula’s allies is that it is necessary to contain the enthusiasm of the right in Brazil with Trump’s victory. Despite the differences between the legislation and the electoral system of the two countries, government officials believe that a possible commitment by the North American president to former president Bolsonaro could end up being reflected in the 2026 dispute.
The main warning point for Planalto concerns the government’s communication with the middle class and center voters. In terms of comparison, PT members assess that this was the point that gave Trump a broad victory in the United States and that it could also be decisive for voters in the Brazilian elections.
“Trump’s election showed one thing: what matters is money in people’s pockets and fair prices for food. If the real economy doesn’t improve people’s lives, what good is the macroeconomy for them?”, said Congressman Reginaldo Lopes (PT-MG).
For him, the left field needs to “stay alert and focus on people’s real needs.” “Otherwise, Brazil could face the same undesirable ‘surprise effect’ at the polls,” added the PT member.
In the same vein, congresswoman Gleisi Hoffmann (PR), national president of the PT, admitted that Trump’s victory will have an influence on Brazil. Trump’s election is a warning sign for the democratic field around the world. Polarization remains a reality and we have to prepare to face it here in Brazil, where the extreme right is already on the rise”, wrote the PT member on social media.
Within the government, the main issue raised is that, as in the USA, the economic issue and pressure on prices will be decisive in the elections. At this point, PT members are still debating what the formula will be to improve communication with this electorate that may eventually be attracted by the discourse of the Brazilian right aligned with Trump.
One of the points explored by the opposition in Brazil, for example, concerns the price of picanha in allusion to a phrase by President Lula during the campaign. This week, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) also assessed that the economy will be decisive in 2026, especially inflation and purchasing power.
Back on the political scene after having his convictions annulled by minister Gilmar Mendes, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), former minister José Dirceu has already ruled out comparisons with the US elections. The PT member is pointed out as one of the names that will try to increase Lula’s electoral viability for his attempt at re-election in 2026.
“Bolsonaro is not Trump. Lula is not Biden or Kamala. Trump took over the Republican Party and turned it into a Trumpist party. Our right is not all Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro has the PL and the other parties may or may not be with Bolsonaro Now, of course, it has to change. The left has to find a way to regain territory, return to the youth, work with the networks and update its message”, said Dirceu in an interview with the newspaper. The Globe.
Trump must empty environmental agenda promoted by Lula
A point that had already caused fear on the part of Planalto since the United States elections, the environmental agenda that will be adopted by Trump is also being followed by members of the Lula government. A change in stance by the North American government should empty the agenda that the PT member has been trying to implement since the beginning of his government.
Lula’s bet for next year is precisely to hold the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP-30), in Belém, Pará. The event will aim to review and strengthen the Paris Agreement.
The treaty establishes a series of actions to be followed by signatory countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In his first term, Trump withdrew the country from the agreement signed by 195 countries because he considered it “disadvantageous” to Americans. The tendency is to repeat the act after President Joe Biden returned the nation to the treaty.
Fearing that the event would be empty without the presence of the United States, the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, assessed that one strategy could be to seek out North American state governments.
“In the USA, states are independent, and many states can tackle climate change independently of the federal government. Of course, it is better when there is internal alignment, as we have here in Brazil”, said Marina Silva. Regarding Trump’s rise, the minister questioned whether countries “will need to work twice as hard” if a nation does not do its part.
