The expert estimated where the Ukrainians will stop the occupiers and what will happen to the Russians in 2025

by Andrea
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On Tuesday, October 10, 2023, the Russian occupiers launched an attack on the town of Avdijivka (Avdiivka), a few kilometers northwest of Donetsk. The former seat of the Donetsk region has been occupied by pro-Russian forces since 2014.

Since Avdijivka was the bastion of Ukrainian defense on this section of the front for many years and the Russians tried to capture it in vain in the first two years of the full-scale war, it was considered an impregnable fortress.

However, it fell on Monday, February 12, 2024.

And not only did Avdijivka fall, but in the following year, Ukrainians also lost Ocheretyne (May 4, 2024), Vuhledar (October 1, 2024) or Selydove (October 30, 2024). The aggressors thereby created a salient reaching almost to the city of Pokrovsk, occupying an unusually large part of the territory and raising fears that the Ukrainian defenses were completely collapsing.

However, the analyst of the Slovak Society for Foreign Policy, Alexander Duleba, explained the reasons why the Russian advance could soon stop, what the Ukrainians should gain in the coming months in order to eliminate the most effective Russian weapon at the moment, and estimated what will hit the people of Russia in 2025.

Two mistakes and an unexpected Russian ace

Analyst Duleba sees three reasons behind the progress of the Russians, which in the previous year was surprisingly fast considering the trench warfare.

One cause of Ukraine’s problems was the restriction of aid from the US. At the end of 2023, Republicans blocked the White House’s request for another package of weapons or ammunition for Ukraine and Israel, because they wanted to force a stronger crackdown on migration to the United States from the Democrats. The aid was unblocked only in April 2024.

Duleb attributes the second failure to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who, according to the analyst, did not take responsibility for the recruitment of new Ukrainian soldiers, transferred it to the parliament and thus caused a delay of several months in the recruitment of new forces.

The lack of weapons, ammunition and soldiers, and, according to reports from the field, some erroneous decisions by the commanders, were manifested on the front by the loss of territory to an unprecedented extent.

In addition, the Russians pulled out an “unexpected ace from their sleeve” – ​​heavy aerial bombs. According to military experts, they installed components on the originally “stupid” bombs, thanks to which Russian pilots can drop them dozens of kilometers from the front. Since the bombs known as KAB or FAB weigh more than a ton, they cause extremely powerful explosions.

Instead of hundreds of shots from the artillery systems, a few less successful hits from guided bombs were enough to destroy the Ukrainian defensive positions. In addition, thanks to this step, after roughly two years of war, the Russians managed to involve the air force in the battles to a greater extent, in which they have an overwhelming advantage over the Ukrainians. “They know how to destroy Ukrainian defense lines more effectively than in 2022 and 2023,” Duleba told Aktuality.sk.

Toreck and Kurachov

On the other hand, the occupiers used the tactic of sending small groups of soldiers as a bait to expose the Ukrainian defenders and subsequent heavy bombardment with guided bombs successfully in practically only one section of the front – in the vicinity of the aforementioned Pokrovskoe.

At Torecko, which the Russians also attacked hard, the defenders managed to significantly eliminate their advance in August 2024. It was at that time that the surprising Ukrainian offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, which was supposed to lure Russian forces away from Donbas, was at its peak.

At the beginning of November 2024, the city of Kurachov also resisted, which after the fall of Vuhledar remained an outpost of the Ukrainians in the area controlled by the Russians. Contrary to other expectations, Duleba thinks that Kurachov could remain under the control of Kyiv in the next period as well. Finally, the weather, which has not been kind to the Ukrainian soldiers so far, could help.

Sunny days prevailed in the Donbass instead of the usual autumn showers, so the soil remained dry and the movement of the “suicide” Russian airdrops was not hindered by the mud that the black soil usually turns into before the arrival of frost. “It’s about the rain. It is November, the rainy season should begin, and if the soil gets wet, a meter-deep layer of mud will form, after which the movement of heavy equipment is impossible,” the analyst outlined.

Predictions that did not come true

The more optimistic expectations are opposed by previous experience, when the forecasts, according to which the Russian army and the economy were supposed to collapse, have repeatedly failed. The Kremlin has already demonstrably lost more than 18,900 pieces of equipment, including more than 3,500 tanks.

The Russian population is being crushed by high inflation and increasingly neglected healthcare, education and other public services, as gigantic sums go into the production of weapons and ammunition, which will soon “evaporate” on the battlefields.

However, according to available information, the West mistakenly estimated the degree of indifference of the Russian population. It continues to obey its ruler, Vladimir Putin, although more than 200,000 Russians are estimated to have died in the senseless war, and more than 400,000 others have probably been injured.

Not to mention the brutality of the Russian commanders with which they approach their soldiers and the violence that the Russian population faces from some of the released veterans or repressive elements of the Putin regime.

Trump’s promises and reality

Despite the indifference and resilience of the Russian population and the difficulties on the Ukrainian side, Kyiv continues to have stronger trump cards, according to analyst Duleb.

Although the erratic Donald Trump won the American elections, according to available indications, he will not have a chance to conclude an agreement with Putin that would lead to the “freezing” of the conflict in Ukraine.

Just a few months ago, American arms companies signed contracts to increase the production of ammunition for Ukrainian artillery and other weapons. These are contracts worth hundreds of millions of euros, which would lose their meaning after the aid to Ukraine is stopped.

Trump is also threatening a trade war with China. “I’m afraid that if Trump goes through with imposing 60 percent tariffs on goods from China, it will radicalize China and that could lead to a war in the Pacific,” Duleba noted.

He drew attention to Taiwan and the Korean peninsula, and to the fact that Russia has become absolutely dependent on China in acquiring technology and in the sale of mineral raw materials. “And he will find that the wars are connected,” the analyst added to Trump.

Russia will not be the new North Korea

Meanwhile, problems are growing in Russia itself. The so-called welfare fund, which was supposed to help the people of Russia thanks to the income from oil and gas, Putin has almost completely squandered on arms production.

Duleba expects that hyperinflation (uncontrolled price growth) or stagflation (price growth will not get out of control, but the economy will begin to collapse) may hit Russia as early as 2025.

On the other hand, the analyst does not expect that the Russians could be so numb that they would accept the fate of the people of North Korea after a possible loss in the war. They are witnesses of massive spending of money in the army, despite the severe poverty.

“North Korea has been in such a slump practically since the 1950s. Russia has survived some kind of democracy, Russians travel all over the world. The Russians will endure a lot, but North Korea will not be from Russia,” Duleba is convinced.

According to him, more Western fighters should arrive in Ukraine in the coming months. They could eliminate the Russian air force and stop the devastating bombing, which would increase the chances that the occupiers would not add any more to the territories conquered so far.

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