Bolsonaristas have every right to think that his victory means that the way is open for () to return to the Presidency in 2026. It is also understandable that Lulistas embrace the idea, envisioning the possibility of disputing power along the lines of 2022.
Anyone who sees the distant panorama of militant enthusiasm, however, has the duty to doubt, very much, that we are doomed to experience an Orloff effect in reverse. The are not Brazil tomorrow.
The mirrored gaze disregards the differences between the two countries and, above all, the passage of time. If an election here, within our specific rules and circumstances, does not serve to accurately project the future two years ahead, much less reliable is the presumed reflection in the electoral results from one country to another.
At the outset, it is worth remembering that Bolsonaro did not win in 2018 due to Trump’s rise to power in 2016. He won due to a combination of factors, all internal.
I remember a few: Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT), arrested, banned the construction of candidacies, the center entered the scene late after several fruitless trials, the right wing waited to see where it would be best to tie up its canoe. Bolsonaro moved towards “against everything that is there”, in a space empty of propositions, ready to be filled with any answers. The attack in Juiz de Fora completed the job.
What brings us closer to the USA is the bad mood of the electorate that the right knows how to capture and the left still has no idea how to win back. Everything else distances us: electoral system, multi-party organization, trauma from the past of coups and authoritarian governments, existence of Electoral Justice, legal barriers to dirty candidates, Supreme Court on alert and here we arrive at the ineligibility of the former president.
This is the crucial difference, as well as an obstacle whose removal is not the responsibility of the American government nor is it part of the priorities of presidents busy with commanding the world order, with very little attention to what is happening here and in South America.
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