Donald Trump’s overwhelming victory in the race for president of the United States gave ex-president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) a boost in a possible presidential run in 2026, despite him still being ineligible. Even with the volatility of the scenario and two political years ahead, conjunctural factors that helped Trump can serve as a lesson or guide Bolsonaro and the right as a whole on the electoral journey now.
Gazeta do Povo heard political analysts who listed factors that led Trump to victory and could be useful for the Brazilian right if they are implemented by 2026. Among them are the unity around a candidate, the use of the party machine to campaign and form a government, attention to the real desires of the people instead of seeking an identity policy and understanding the tendency for high levels of political polarization to continue.
See below the main points that could influence the next elections in Brazil:
Maintain firmness in choosing the right-wing candidate
One of the facts that made Trump viable is the Republican Party’s choice to remain firm in choosing the right-wing candidate until the end, avoiding dispersion of support. Trump was the target of impeachment and several lawsuits that could have derailed his candidacy. Even so, his name was maintained as the Republican Party’s bet and the response at the polls was unquestionable. The Democratic Party replaced President Joe Biden in the final stretch of the campaign with vice-president Kamala Harris upon realizing that he could lose to Trump.
In Brazil, Bolsonaro’s legal situation is even more hostile than the scenario faced by Trump. Wings of the right have been considering names such as governors Tarcísio de Freiras (Republicanos-SP), Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO) and even the defeated candidate for mayor of São Paulo, Pablo Marçal (PRTB-SP). Bolsonaro has already been articulating the reversal of his ineligibility through a possible decision by Congress and says that the right without him is “utopia”.
“There is a tendency to divide the Brazilian right, his name [Bolsonaro] he is the strongest, in the last election he lost by a small margin and, in a possible dispute, he arrives much more strengthened by the party structure, as happened in the USA, this helps a lot”, said lawyer Manuel Furriela, specialist in International Law .
Take advantage of a robust party machine without losing spontaneity
If Bolsonaro really manages to be the right’s bet for 2026, he could benefit from another factor that helped Trump: a robust party structure. Both Trump, when he was elected for the first time in 2016, and Bolsonaro, in 2018, had charismatic speech and anti-system speech in common. But neither of them had a strong party machine in their favor and ended up forming governments somewhat “improvised”, according to political analysts.
When they ran for re-election, both already had more solid political structures, but ended up hampered by exceptional factors, the main one being the Covid pandemic. According to political scientist Gustavo Alves, Trump and Bolsonaro’s re-election was hampered in part by criticism from public opinion and a hostile press regarding the handling of the pandemic.
When running again this year, Trump found a more favorable scenario, with an American voter concerned about the way the Democratic Party has been managing the economy.
“Trump changed, professionalized the way of directing the dispute and returned to power, Bolsonaro can analyze critically [o que pode aprender com o republicano]”, he states.
In his view, Trump emerged victorious by adopting different practices in this election. “He listened to marketers, was more restrained in certain regions of the country, but did not lose his essence, which pleased voters. He even managed to take advantage of something he disagreed with: early voting by mail,” he said.
Trump even defended that voters should all go to the polls on a single day, but he ended up convinced by the party’s marketers and this year he told Americans that they didn’t need to wait to do something different to choose the next president. “It was a change of speech, without losing who he really is. It worked and needs to be analyzed by Bolsonaro”, says Alves. He cites as an example the speeches about electronic voting machines in Brazil.
For lawyer Furriela, a specialist in International Law, the party machine strengthened in favor of North Americans could be an example in Brazil. He remembers that in 2018 Bolsonaro ran as a candidate in a small, unstructured party. His campaign was based on social media powered by his son, Carlos Bolsonaro. “This time, it would be for the PL, which is one of the biggest parties in the country. The party structure favored Trump and will favor Bolsonaro, if he is a candidate, given what the PL represents in politics today.”
Political commentator Leandro Gabiati, from Dominium consultancy, assesses that each presidential election takes place at a specific moment and in the 2016 contest, the formula used by Trump worked, leading him to the presidency. “He repeats the formula in 2020 and fails. Intelligently, he understood that [agora] the scenario was different and this campaign could not be more improvised, giving way to a more professionalized process. Bolsonaro must analyze this”, he assesses.
“Trump arrived stronger in the party and was very intelligent in changing according to needs, especially because in a balanced election this makes a difference, as he needs to win over voters who are outside his bubble. It was necessary to adjust or consider the message, this should be considered by Bolsonaro”, he adds.
Highlight the flaws of the current government and position itself as an alternative
Both Trump and Bolsonaro suffered a lot of criticism from the left for the way they handled the Covid pandemic and how they positioned themselves in relation to the popular protests that followed their electoral defeats (in 2021 in the USA and in 2023 in Brazil). But now, at least for Trump, part of the strategy has been to criticize how the Democratic administration has handled current challenges.
During Joe Biden’s government, which began in 2021, the main impact felt by Americans – and which weighed heavily on this year’s elections – was the increase in inflation and the loss of purchasing power, accentuated by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Manuel Furriela cites Trump’s performance in the so-called “rust region”, which faced strong deindustrialization in the post-pandemic years and voted en masse for the Republican in the expectation of change. “Another lesson that can be used by Bolsonaro is that local agendas like this can be used here, it worked well for Trump”, he adds.
Leandro Gabiati states that the effects of the pandemic and what it caused to governments that tried and failed to be re-elected around the world need to be critically evaluated, in the expectation that similar situations will not be repeated and that solutions can be presented based on them. “The pandemic cost governments in various parts of the world the non-reelection of governments, including Bolsonaro and Trump. Trump has now reversed that.”
Thus, there is an opportunity for Bolsonaro or the candidate who represents the right to explore challenges in Brazil today, such as the deficit in public accounts, tax increases and the population’s feeling of loss of purchasing power.
“It is necessary to analyze the expectations or mood of Brazilian voters in relation to the current government regarding the economy. Is purchasing power maintained or has it decreased? In the United States, this is what Trump did, this type of issue will logically weigh in on 2026”, says Leandro Gabiati.
Polarization still weighs heavily on the political scene, but it is necessary to conquer the center
In Manuel Furriela’s opinion, political polarization has lost strength in Brazil, but it will not disappear in a short time and should not cease to exist. “In Brazil, the opposition we had was that of the left with the center-right of the PSDB. It was not a conservative vision, there were differences about privatizations, but the social issues were similar. In the USA, there has always been polarization between Republicans and Democrats. When Bolsonaro appeared [à cena política nacional] it was a big novelty, revealing a new type of conservative voter, now this is a little more reduced”.
For the expert, Bolsonaro has the votes to be a strong candidate, but that alone will not guarantee victory, which would require him to dialogue with the center, as Trump did in the USA. “This involves the adequacy of the speech.”
Trump’s victory creates fuel for right-wing leaders around the world in the face of conservative militancy. Gabiati recalls that the work of more elaborate communication had results for Trump and should be evaluated by Bolsonaro. He remembers that party capillarity needs a party structure with campaign resources, which Trump has always had and Bolsonaro will have in a possible dispute in 2026.
“We imagine that Bolsonaro will improve the professionalism of his campaign, obviously without losing his essence, taking care of some details and also aware that he has to consider messages to reach an electorate that today may be outside his voting field. polarized.” For the commentator, this involves dosing the speech, like what Trump did.
Taking advantage of the left’s inability to understand the population’s desires
American Democratic candidate Kamala Harris focused her campaign heavily on identity issues and the issue of abortion. Although the Biden government kept the unemployment rate low (4% this year) and the economy grew, Kamala was unable to establish the image of a good administrator.
The Democratic Party remained very focused on a class and labor discourse, without understanding the desires of a large part of the population for less control and freedom for entrepreneurship. According to Gabiati, the left has a classist DNA in both the USA and Brazil, which makes it difficult to understand society’s changes in worldview. The right in Brazil can take advantage of the government’s structural inability to incorporate this type of population’s needs into the electoral campaign.
For lawyer Alexandre Pires, a specialist in International Law and political commentator, Bolsonaro or the right-wing candidate must have a clear campaign strategy, a coherent speech, without improvisations, but also without giving up ideology and customs. “There needs to be a speech with an ideological component that offers differentiation from alternatives to the left and even from the center, but that has consistency and concreteness with a clearer message, as Trump did and was doing,” he said.
