The end of the municipal elections gave rise to the positioning of the main potential candidates for the Guanabara Palace in 2026.
As soon as the polls were closed, the mayor of , (), and the president of the Legislative Assembly, (), exchanged public barbs and signaled possible allies in the state dispute.
The two publicly deny their intention to run for office in two years, but they are the ones who moved the most after the poll results in October.
Paes has the guarantee of support from the president in the dispute. However, as in the municipal election, the aim is to expand the range of allies. The mayor assesses that he needs to improve the reach of his campaign in the interior, his main challenge.
Bacellar, in turn, () to present himself as an option for the family in the dispute. The objective of the former president and his party is to focus on the election for the Senate, opening space for alliances in candidacies for state governments.
Both publicly days after the first round. The mayor compared the state deputy’s actions to that of mafia groups. In response, the deputy called him a “tramp”, “disingenuous”, “cynical” and “virgin girl in the cabaret”.
Paes tried to take the conflict to the political sphere, seeking to articulate a front against Bacellar in the dispute for command of the Assembly at the beginning of next year. He even rehearsed an approach with MDB, PP and PL itself, bases of the governor (PL).
However, Paes changed the field of movement. Federal deputy Doutor Luizinho (PP), who signaled the possibility of facing Bacellar, had to retreat after his area of influence, the Department of Health, .
The president of the Assembly blocked the creation of a CPI on the issue, tied the PP to his re-election to the position, as well as limiting Paes’ articulation to try to attract Castro to an alternative to command of the House.
The mayor, who saw Luizinho as an option to expand his range of allies, had to retreat from the approach in the short term.
Paes’ move occurs even after the contest for the Guanabara Palace. Although the possibility of not running is still on the table, allies see his willingness to face eventual exhaustion to try for a third time to be governor — he lost in 2006 and 2018.
“He swore by Vasco, right? I think he will stop supporting Vasco. Eduardo Paes will be called up to be a candidate for governor”, said Gilberto Kassab, national president of the PSD, in an interview with Canal Livre, from Band, on Sunday (3).
One of the main signs was the fact that Paes did not abandon his criticism of public safety after his victory in the first round.
The position, which was previously seen as a way to wear down opponent Alexandre Ramagem (PL), began to be seen as an entry into the debate on the main state agenda.
“I will, with the legitimacy of four terms as mayor of Rio de Janeiro, demand on behalf of the population of Rio your inaction, the lack of public security policy, the shame that we are experiencing”, he said, two years ago weeks, on the day that three people died on Avenida Brasil after a police operation.
Paes is at a disadvantage in the interior, where the PSD only obtained two small city halls: Carmo and Porciúncula, both with around 15 thousand voters. His coalition’s acronyms account for 18 of the state’s 92 city halls.
Bacellar, in turn, has as its main asset the capillarity of allies across the state. União Brasil, under its state presidency, elected 12 mayors. The PL, which he courts, won 22 city halls.
Like Paes, the president of the Assembly denies his intention to run for state government.
He states that his main objective is a vacancy at the TCE-RJ (Rio de Janeiro State Audit Court), where he worked. However, before the elections, a series of meetings began that included three Bolsonaros: Flávio, Jair and Carlos.
“There is the possibility of us using this vacancy to build a strong ticket for senator, deputy, supporting a candidate who is not from PL. It is a possibility”, said senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), in an interview with the website Metrópoles .
The meteoric rise of the state deputy, however, has been viewed with reservations by political leaders in Rio de Janeiro. He launched candidacies in important cities, such as Nova Iguaçu and Duque de Caxias, disrupting the plans of important regional leaders, such as Doutor Luizinho and Washington Reis (MDB), respectively.
The Bolsonaro camp is still susceptible to a possible untimely decision by Jair Bolsonaro, who usually has special weight in Rio de Janeiro, his electoral home.
Ramagem, whose result in the municipal election was seen as positive, is a name mentioned, although the greatest probability is that he will run for reappointment in the Chamber of Deputies. Even Flávio is fancied to enter the dispute.
Luizinho was also seen as a name option by both the Paes and Castro groups and the PL.
The transplant scandal, however, made the deputy’s name unviable in the current assessment. Washington Reis is also mentioned as an alternative, both due to his political articulation in the state and his proximity to Bolsonaro.
Vice-governor Thiago Pampolha (MDB) is also mentioned as a possible name for the MDB, if the party chooses to remain distant from the likely polarization of the dispute in Rio de Janeiro.
