The Democrats have not yet thrown in the towel, but their chances are increasingly slim. The Republican Party is almost claiming victory. The scrutiny of the results of the November 5 elections in the House of Representatives continues and With 25 of the 435 seats left to be awarded, 211 have already been safely signed up, compared to 199 for the Democrats. He is only seven away from reaching the desired threshold of 218 that would give him a majority and he is ahead in 11 of the 25 districts pending completion of the scrutiny.
As the vote count is going, the most likely scenario is that of a slim majority of the conservatives, but a majority nonetheless. Having control of the two chambers of Congress will make life much easier for Donald Trump to carry out his budget and legislative projects, avoid closures of the Administration and raise the debt ceiling, although none of that will necessarily be a bed of roses. , given the different Republican political families.
If the Republicans confirm the majority of the lower house, it is almost a given that they will repeat as speaker. In the previous legislature, since the Republicans achieved a majority in the 2022 elections, choosing the parliamentary leader became hell. To name Kevin McCarthy in a spectacle of internal division that had only just begun.
McCarthy without precedent from the Republicans themselves, who left the position vacant in October 2023. After several failed attempts to find a replacement, his time with the gavel did not have an easy time either. The hard wing of the Republican parliamentary group rebelled against him on several occasions due to the few agreements he reached with the Democrats to avoid the partial closure of the Administration and the approval of one among others. Were
Trump’s enormous influence over members of the Republican caucus – and the fear that instils the possibility of facing him and losing their support in the primaries – may prevent some of the internal revolts. However, they may resist approving measures such as increasing the debt limit without question. Trump may be able to satisfy them, but with such a narrow majority, a few defections are enough to boycott measures that imply greater federal spending.
The size of that ―supposed― majority will depend on the end of the scrutiny in the 25 districts in which the winner has not yet been decided. Many of them correspond to California, the State with the largest number of representatives (35), in which mail ballots arriving up to a week after the elections are accepted as long as they are sealed by November 5, and where, in addition, Their processing is very slow. Of the 25 seats to be awarded, 10 come from the Golden State.
The future of the Supreme Court
In the Senate, meanwhile, Republicans have 53 of the 100 seats, after wresting seats in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania from the Democrats. That comfortable majority will allow Trump to win the Senate The Senate also confirms the appointments of federal judges, including those of the Supreme Court, where the positions are for life. Among the nine justices of the Supreme Court, the two oldest are Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74. It does not seem like the central scenario, but if Trump managed to get both of them to retire, he would have the power to name their replacements. . With this, it would practically guarantee a conservative majority in the Supreme Court for two or three decades, since it is over 60 years old.
The Senate majority also facilitates legislative work, but with an important caveat. Since 1975, most laws require a qualified majority of 60 of the 100 senators. This, however, is a derivative of the filibuster born in the 19th century, which does not require constitutional or legal changes. Democrats tried to abolish it during Biden’s term, but two of their senators rejected it. Republicans can now eliminate that supermajority requirement.
The final difference in the popular vote in favor of Trump in the presidential elections also depends mainly on the progress of the scrutiny in California; With provisional data, he surpasses Kamala Harris by just over four million votes. If the trend in that State’s count continues, the difference could be reduced and be around three million. Likewise, when the total count is completed, it will be possible to see how many votes Harris has lost; the figure probably exceeds five million. The support that Trump has gained will also be confirmed, as with provisional data he still has fewer votes than he achieved four years ago (74.2 million). In any case, it seems very difficult to surpass Biden’s record.
