They left a positive balance for Bolsonarism, which faced setbacks and had difficulties electing mayors, but still from north to south.
A, an ally of the former president (), also evaluates experts consulted by the Sheet.
The centrão was consecrated as one of 2024, which had the highest re-election rate since redemocratization.
The success of the bloc, made up of parties generally aligned with a more traditional conservatism, does not, however, indicate that voters have moved away from the radical right platform, such as that represented by .
“[A eleição municipal] It’s a vote much more from the machine, from the electoral fund, than what the mayor managed to deliver”, says Daniela Costanzo, researcher at Cebrap (Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning) and PhD in political science from USP (University of São Paulo).
“When this discussion goes to the federal level, it becomes much more radicalized. People go to the big political issues”, he adds.
It is also not enough to just look at the victorious candidates, says Jorge Chaloub, professor of political science at UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro). “In the main capitals it was not the ultra-right that won, but it demonstrated that it had the vote”, he says.
He also highlights that candidates aligned with the traditional center-right, such as the mayor (MDB), needed to make gestures to win voters. “The need to make these moves already puts me off thinking that it was a victory for moderation.”
Candidates from Bolsonarism or those identified with radical right agendas achieved large votes. This was the case in São Paulo, with André Fernandes (PL) in Fortaleza, with (PL) in Belo Horizonte, with Cristina Graeml (PMB) in Curitiba and with Fred Rodrigues (PL) in Goiânia.
“For Bolsonaro, it is very important to maintain his base,” says Costanzo. “Just the fact that they go to the second round already means a lot. Valdemar [Costa Neto, presidente do PL] but that doesn’t mean that Bolsonarism is weak.”
On the other hand, says Chaloub, Bolsonaro failed as a political strategist. “São Paulo highlights this. He didn’t know how to pick fights, expand alliances. It was a defeat in strategy, but he showed the ability to influence voters.”
The biggest news of these elections, as a reference for the radical right, was the wave caused by Marçal, says David Magalhães, coordinator of the Observatory of the Far Right and professor of international relations at PUC-SP.
The influencer had dizzying growth in the elections in São Paulo, selling himself as in the election and displacing Nunes, Bolsonaro’s official candidate, among the former president’s voters. When Bolsonaro finally tried to contain Marçal’s growth, his own followers criticized him.
“Marçal showed an alternative in terms of leadership for the radical right, and made a point of establishing this contrast by placing Bolsonaro alongside the forces of professional politics”, says Magalhães.
For Chaloub, the influencer is a symptom of the former president’s clumsy movements, and also paves the way for other figures to challenge his leadership.
Marçal, who has already declared the Government of São Paulo in 2026, should run again based on the anti-system discourse, against a candidate with a Bolsonarist lineage, like the governor, projects Magalhães.
He states that the rise of the influencer can also be explained by the absence of an organic and ideological right-wing party, capable of uniting the field around a single candidate.
“Our right has always been fragmented and depended on a charismatic leadership. Bolsonaro managed to bring together several trends on the right. Faria Lima, neo-Pentecostal, those nostalgic for the dictatorship”, he says. “As this leadership moves away and another emerges, the right is divided between who it should support.”
If Bolsonarism showed signs of strength in the municipal elections, now with the election of Trump. For Magalhães, considering the influence of , the first effect will be the normalization of radical discourse.
“With the Senate and the Supreme Court in our hands, these practices tend to be even more normalized. I think [a vitória] It’s a very strong message about the acceptance of these ideas,” he says. “The progressive forces are in retreat and the conservative ones are advancing. It is a conservatism with authoritarian, xenophobic, racist traits.”
He claims that Trump’s victory should increase public support for Bolsonaro and energize his base. On the other hand, it should not have practical effects on one’s ineligibility, or on decisions of the Federal Supreme Court.
Chaloub agrees that the Republican’s election is positive for all leaders, including Bolsonaro. He states, however, that Trump adopts a more refractory stance towards intervention in other nations and, therefore, influence on behalf of the ally may also be restricted.
“On the one hand, there is the application of ultra-right values. On the other, it is not a government that will defend a very strong intervention”, he says. “In this sense, I don’t know if we can expect the amount of help that figures close to Bolsonaro sometimes expect.”
Still, Chaloub remembers that President Joe Biden’s messages that the undemocratic United States were one of the reasons that thwarted the coup attempt after Bolsonaro’s defeat in 2022. With Trump, the scenario would probably have been different, he says.
“An intervention to dissuade an ultra-right coup seems unlikely to me. It doesn’t seem to me that Trump would move against it.”
Diagnosis of Bolsonarism, according to experts
- The centrão’s victory in the municipal elections does not indicate voter moderation. Pleito has a very local perspective, with great machine influence, and had a historic re-election rate this year. Discussion at the national level is more radicalized
- Even though radical right-wing candidates lost in the big cities, many of them achieved significant votes, which indicates that Bolsonarism remains strong
- Bolsonaro’s lack of skill and strategy, associated with his ineligibility and the absence of an organic right-wing party capable of uniting the field, opens the way for other figures to challenge his leadership, such as Pablo Marçal
- Election strengthens Bolsonaro by enhancing and normalizing values of the global ultra-right. Furthermore, it is difficult to expect the same willingness from the Republican as President Joe Biden, who made it clear that the United States would not support a coup attempt after Bolsonaro’s defeat. This could open the way for authoritarian attacks in Brazil
- On the other hand, Trump’s victory should not influence the unlikely reversal of the former president’s ineligibility or STF decisions
