The expectation of allies of (), , that victory for the US Presidency will help the former Brazilian president to no longer be ineligible to contest the 2026 presidential elections depends on a series of unlikely decisions and articulations.
These actions would have to involve (Federal Supreme Court), (Superior Electoral Court), Chamber, Senate and the Planalto Palace itself, the latter of which must have the president () in the dispute for re-election.
This Wednesday (6), Bolsonaro included God in that list: “Maybe soon God will also grant us the chance to complete our mission with dignity and give us back everything that was taken from us,” he said.
The ex-president’s interlocutors claim that the STF, which could have the last word both on political rights and on an amnesty that would benefit Bolsonaro’s candidacy, will not be able to resist the “headwind” that could blow on the magistrates following his victory. of Trump.
But, in addition to the dependence on unlikely decisions, another major obstacle to the projection that Bolsonaro and his allies have made about 2026 is that he is being investigated in STF investigations in the cases of , fraud in and .
If he is eventually convicted in the criminal sphere in these episodes, he loses his political rights from the moment that there are no more appeals, that is, when the conviction has become final, and while he serves his sentence. Thus, only by fulfilling, reversing or annulling the criminal sentence could he see his political rights recovered again.
1) Is Bolsonaro ineligible or not?
The former president was convicted in two actions, both in 2023: the first by . The second, .
According to the rules, the conviction under the Clean Record Law that made Bolsonaro ineligible will last until 2030. The former president’s defense appealed to the Supreme Court in both cases. She has until 2026 to exhaust her appeals in court.
2) Could Bolsonaro remain ineligible for longer?
Yes. In addition to being declared ineligible by the (Superior Electoral Court) until 2030, the former president was indicted this year in investigations into jewelry and the falsification of Covid-19 vaccine certificates.
Bolsonaro is also the target of other investigations, which investigate the crimes of attempted coup d’état and violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, including the attacks of January 8, 2023.
Part of these investigations is within the scope of () and initiated in 2021, which could in theory result in Bolsonaro’s conviction on different fronts.
If he is prosecuted and convicted by the attempted abolition of the democratic rule of law and criminal association, Bolsonaro could take one and stay.
3) How can Bolsonaro become eligible in 2026?
They outlined some possible scenarios that would benefit the former president, but say the likelihood of any of them is low.
One would be the preliminary annulment, by a STF minister, of the TSE decisions. In this case, it would be necessary for the plenary to endorse the decision, which today is seen as a highly unlikely hypothesis.
Another scenario concerns the STF ruling the appeals as unfounded and returning the cases to the TSE, where the sentences are executed.
Bolsonaro could, in theory, file a so-called termination action. This type of action is rare and lists scenarios in which the process that has already become final and unappealable can be terminated. For example, when the decision is made by a “judge who is impeded or by an absolutely incompetent court”.
4) Can Bolsonaro run after amnesty from Congress?
In theory, yes, but so far nothing indicates that the Chamber and Senate will include any loophole in favor of the former president in the current discussion of the bill.
Furthermore, Bolsonaro’s amnesty proposal would have to be approved in both Houses, would then be analyzed for sanction or veto by President Lula and would probably be challenged in court and taken to the STF, where the former president has suffered defeats. with a wide margin of votes.
a possible amnesty given to those convicted of the coup attacks on January 8, 2023 has a loophole in its origins and should reach the Supreme Court, according to experts interviewed by the report.
5) What is Bolsonaro’s current plan to run for office in 2026?
In , the former president said that only he on the right would have a chance of winning in the next election for Palácio do Planalto.
“I intend to run in 2026. There is no point in my ineligibility (…) The alternatives are Parliament, an action in the STF, waiting for the last moment to register a candidacy and the TSE to decide. I’m not optimistic, I’m realistic, I’m prepared for anything.”
