Economic team tries to align cuts package with government, but there is no consensus on Lula’s Esplanada
The debate about cutting public spending has dominated the economic team in Brasília in the last two weeks. Despite being charged by the market, the government did not make any official announcement about the measures, but authorities involved in the preparation have already flagged expenses that are on the radar for review.
One of the categories mentioned was the (Continuous Payment Benefit), payment of 1 minimum wage per month to people with disabilities and low-income elderly people. Transfers totaled R$88 billion in 2023, when considering inflation. There was a 51% increase in the allocation compared to 10 years ago.
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Expenses with the benefit totaled R$75.8 billion in 2024 until July, the latest data available. The value still did not consider the fine-tooth comb announced by the government.
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The secretary of, , has already said that the expansion of figures with the BPC is in the sights of technicians.
“BPC is growing at double digits, a growth that draws attention. There is no clear motivation for what could be happening to have this dynamic.”, in an interview with journalists on July 26, 2024.
Some ministers, however, have already said they are against structural changes to benefits. , of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, declared that the president (PT) will not cut this expense.
FUNDEB EXPENDITURE
Another expense already mentioned by members of the economic team is the (Fund for Maintenance and Development of Basic Education and Valorization of Education Professionals). It is an amount intended to finance public education.
The fund reached the R$59.0 billion mark in 2024, according to data consulted on November 8. Expenditure grew 32.3% from 2014 to 2023, in values adjusted for inflation.
Fundeb has been a permanent expense since 2020, determined by the Constitution. It needs legislative changes that require more votes in Congress to be modified, such as a PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution).
The Minister of Planning and Budget, , has already signaled that Fundeb did not bring benefits to education proportional to the transfers. He declared on June 12 that the category needs to be at least revised, during a public hearing in the Chamber. The Minister of Education, , is .
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND ALLOWANCE
As already Poder360spending on unemployment insurance went from R$37.4 billion in January 2022 to R$45.4 billion in August 2024 – an increase of 21%.
It draws attention to the fact that values are increasing even at a time when data indicates an acceleration in the job market, with an unemployment rate at a record low and the creation of formal jobs above expectations.
Salary bonus values have also increased recently.
They went from R$24.8 billion in 2023 to R$27.9 billion in 2024. The government’s expectation is that it will reach more than R$30 billion in 2025, according to the Budget project sent to Congress.
Both figures have already been in the sights of the economic team. One of the proposals was of the benefit with others to save expenses.
Tebet confirmed his intentions in September. The minister suggested the possibility of limiting the annual amount to people who receive the minimum wage: “The salary bonus was only for those earning up to 1 minimum wage and it went up to 2. Do we end the bonus or reduce the bonus from 2 to 1 minimum wage? Integration can mean combining two or 3 policies into one. I can do a big project in this sense in the social area”.
RESISTANCE
There is disagreement on the Esplanada de Lula.
The Minister of Labor and Employment, Luiz Marinho, is against the changes. resign if adjustments are made without prior consultation.
During a meeting with the Minister of Social Security, Carlos Lupi, (Treasury) did not even have the chance to present anything. Lupi was the one who showed measures that the ministry is taking, such as selling the beneficiary list for Crefisa to operate and the Atestmed system, which grants sickness benefits through document analysis.
Lupi had already said that “if it were to cut benefits, I wouldn’t count on him in the government”.
