A study by reveals positive economic prospects for Brazilian households in the next decade. The analysis predicts a continuous increase in total income and in income available for consumption in the country until 2034. This growth, unlike previous phases, will not be driven by social transfers from the pandemic or by high interest rates that favored financial income.
The projection indicates an annual growth of 4% in Brazil’s total income from 2024 to 2028, with an expectation of 6.7% in 2024. For the period from 2029 to 2034, a slowdown to 3.5% is expected. %. As for income available for consumption, an average increase of 4.4% is expected from 2024 to 2028 and 3.9% from 2029 to 2034.
Several factors contribute to this scenario of economic expansion. The slowdown in the main global economies and a cycle of gradual reduction in interest rates are among them. Geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies are also expected to have a moderate impact on Brazil.
However, the study highlights challenges such as the difficulty of advancing the economic agenda due to low presidential popularity, which can affect government cohesion and the implementation of economic policies.
The study also points to long-term trends, such as lower growth in areas with a strong presence of the public sector and the continuity of electronic retail. For the poorest population, it suggests that financial inclusion can boost consumption, even without the expansion of social transfers.
