The advance of renewables in the world has not yet managed to bend the curve of global emissions linked to the burning of fossil fuels, the main responsible for climate change along with deforestation. Researchers from the (GCP), an international consortium that has been analyzing the evolution of (CO₂) in the world for almost two decades, estimate that this year will close with an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023 levels. If expanded The focus since 2015, the growth in emissions from the fossil sector—coal, oil, gas and cement production—has been 7.78% in these nine years. This is stated in the GCP report presented this Wednesday within the framework of the annual climate summit, which this year is being held in the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku.
The current agreement to combat climate change established just the opposite. The fundamental goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the first half of this century, CO₂ being the main one, to prevent warming from exceeding safety limits: that the increase in temperature does not exceed 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and, as far as possible, 1.5.
The planet is already at an average warming of around 1.2 degrees; and the current policies of all the countries of the world will lead, except for a radical change of direction, . Approximately half of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans ends up concentrated in the atmosphere and it is estimated that it remains there for hundreds of years, trapping heat. The more CO₂ is present in the atmosphere, the more heat is trapped on the planet’s surface. GCP experts have been calculating the so-called “carbon budget” for years. They calculate that “at the current rate of emissions” there is “a 50% chance that global warming will constantly exceed 1.5 degrees in about six years.” Although they admit that this calculation is subject to large uncertainties, mainly linked to how other gases may affect them, the researchers maintain that “it is clear that the remaining carbon budget – and, therefore, the time left to meet the objective of the 1.5 degrees and avoid the worst impacts of climate change― has almost been exhausted.”
In any case, Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, believes that there is still “time to comply with the Paris Agreement.” And even if the goal of 1.5 degrees were exceeded, “there is a world” of difference between also exceeding 2 degrees or not. Because every tenth of an increase represents an exponential increase in damage, in the form, for example, . “We have made a lot of progress in developing renewable energy capacity, but it is not even enough to cover new energy demand,” says Canadell about the reasons why emissions are increasing again this year.
Positive signs
In the world as a whole, renewables are still far from replacing fossil fuels. But, as Corinne Le Quéré, also a member of this project, points out, “the latest data show evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewable energies and electric cars that displace fuel.” Added to this is also “the decrease in emissions from deforestation in recent decades confirmed for the first time.” “There are many signs of positive progress at the national level and a sense that a peak in global CO₂ emissions from the fossil sector is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive,” adds Glen Peters of the Center for International Research on Climate and the Environment.
GCP studies suggest that 2024 will close with an increase of 0.2% in coal emissions, 0.9% in the case of oil and 2.4% in the case of natural gas. Among the data that gives some hope this year is the evolution of China, the world’s leading emitter (this economy alone accumulates 32% of all the world’s carbon dioxide). For China, researchers point to a marginal growth of 0.2%. Although Canadell explains that there are still weeks left until the end of the year and there are uncertainties about the data, . “And what China does has a planetary impact,” adds Canadell.
The other reason for hope is Europe. An emissions decline of 3.8% is forecast for the EU in 2024, largely due to the strong push for renewables despite weak economic growth and high energy prices. In the case of India, however, an increase of 4.6% is expected and in the rest of the world (excluding the US) 1.1%.
Trump’s threat
Emissions from the United States—the second largest emitter in the world, with 13% of the global total—will fall by 0.6% in 2024. But the real concern is what may happen from next year. The Republican has promised to tear down the entire legislative edifice to combat climate change and limits on fossil fuels that the previous Democratic administration put in place. Furthermore, it is taken for granted that he will take his country out of the Paris Agreement again, as he did in his previous mandate.
Canadell points to the certain risk that a second Trump term could “slow down” the rate of emissions reduction that has occurred in recent decades in the United States. But he warns that renewables are unstoppable, while “power plants that use coal can hardly survive economically.” This point of view coincides with that expressed this Tuesday at COP29 by the UN Secretary General, António Guterres. “The clean energy revolution is already here. “No group, no company or no government can stop it.”
Beyond what may happen within the borders of the United States, Canadell, like many other analysts, is concerned that the “lack of global leadership” of the United States could have “a negative effect” on other countries, slowing down its action against emissions due to the lack of international climate financing that Trump will also predictably cut. “Even so, there are other countries that seem to be prepared to be new donors of funds to help, such as China,” says this researcher. “Whatever happens with Trump, the path to global decarbonization is now inevitable,” he concludes.