With a month and a half to go until the end of the year, the stock markets are accumulating substantial gains. and Europeans up to 16%, finding attractive options is becoming increasingly complicated. Selecting securities to achieve extra profitability is key. The bonanza is also noticeable in Spanish equities as a whole: up to 23 securities have gained more than 20% so far in 2024, and eight of them continue to retain similar or even greater potential: Sabadell, Unicaja, Santander, Indra, Técnicas Reunidas, Atresmedia, San José and Audax.
Banks continue to occupy the top positions. Although in recent months analysis firms have warned that in an environment of lower rates the days of record profits are numbered, entities continue to squeeze high rates as much as possible. the first accounts that begin to reflect the effects of monetary flexibility. Despite this, the six listed entities increased their profits by 19.7%, to 23,656 million. Good results and corporate movements continue to support valuations.
With a potential of 24.8% to 2.20 euros established by the Bloomberg consensus, . The bank that is the object of BBVA’s desire is the second most bullish value on the Ibex 35, with a revaluation of 52%. These increases do not intimidate analysts. In addition to the potential, 59.1% of the firms that follow the value advise buying, and the remaining 40.9% recommend keeping in the portfolio. That is, you continue to enjoy the privilege of not having sales advice. “The third quarter results have been in line in interest margin and have exceeded our and consensus estimates in gross margin by 4% and 3%,” highlights Nuria Álvarez, analysts at Renta 4.
Since BBVA launched the hostile takeover bid, the first in almost 40 years, the entity led by César González Bueno has not stopped gaining muscle. In addition to achieving record results, the bank has continued to improve its shareholder remuneration policy. After having raised the amount to be distributed among investors from 2,400 to 2,900 million euros, the entity hopes to increase the figure again in the coming months. If it does not do so, it is not due to lack of capacity, because at the end of September the capital ratio stood at 13.8%, above its target of 13%. That is, it has an excess of 638 million that could be used to reward shareholder loyalty. “Sabadell positively surprises in results, with excess capital and an interesting shareholder remuneration plan,” highlights the Bankinter analysis department, which takes advantage of the opportunity to raise the target price to 2.25 euros, above the consensus. from Bloomberg. “We continue to believe that the probability of success of the takeover bid is reduced if BBVA does not improve the exchange equation or offer cash compensation,” they maintain.
Together with Sabadell, to advance, in its case an additional 0.5%, up to 1.41 euros per share established by consensus. 36.8% of analysts advise buying shares, compared to 52.6% who recommend holding and 10.5% who consider that the bank has appreciated too much and it is time to cash in. Citi analysts highlight that, if non-performing loans and provisions normalize faster, the shares could rise above the target price of 1.13 euros established by the US entity. For its part, CaixaBank BPI maintains the recommendation the same as the market. “We think that the profitability of the business depends too much on net income and its mortgage business in a context of rate cuts,” they highlight. The firm describes the changes in governance as positive.
. Although its revaluation does not reach 20% (14% in the year), the consensus gives it a potential of 28%, up to 5.74 euros, levels that it has not seen since January 2018. This optimism is also reflected in the recommendations : 74.2% advise buying bank shares, compared to 22.6% who choose to hold. Only 3.2% believe that the entity has already run too far. Although the bank chaired by Ana Botín has been one of the listed companies hardest hit by the revaluation of the dollar after Donald Trump’s victory, Bankinter’s analysis department includes it in its portfolio of 20 preferred stocks. “Santander’s strategy is successful due to the diversification of its business lines and geography, as well as the efficient allocation of capital,” the analysts highlight. Barclays chooses Santander as its preferred option in the Spanish financial sector. “It is the only bank in which we see year-on-year profit growth for the next two years,” they highlighted in their latest report.
Indra is in the same position, which after registering 16.8% in the year, still has the potential to advance 41.6%, to 23.45 euros, above the annual maximum of 21.56 euros. which was registered last June. The company chaired by Marc Murtra is the largest listed company linked to the defense sector in the Spanish market. Furthermore, Indra is one of the few members of the Ibex 35 that lacks sales advice: 75% of the firms that follow value advise buying shares, compared to 25% that maintain a more cautious view and limit themselves to recommending keeping it in briefcase. It is seen as an opportunity for defense companies. The Republican has reminded EU countries of the commitment they must make in defense spending. At the end of the third quarter, income from the defense division reached 226 million euros, 16%, a business that could be strengthened. the group’s great bet for the coming years.
The list of stocks that retain a potential of more than 20%, despite the strong revaluations registered in the year, extends beyond the reference index. In the Ibex Medium Cap, which groups listed mid-cap companies, Tecnicas Reunidas and Atresmedia are seen as attractive options. (-0.085%) and with less than two months to go until the end of the year, 16.8% is recorded. Despite this run, the Bloomberg consensus continues to see it reach 16.89 euros. That is, it gives it a potential of 58.6%. Like Sabadell and Indra, Técnicas Reunidas is part of the select club of listed companies that lack sales advice: 66.7% of the firms advise buying shares and the remaining 33.3% believe that the most appropriate thing to do is to keep them in the portfolio. .
The reason that explains the company’s good performance this year has been the presentation of its strategic plan last May. The engineer chaired by Juan Lladó expects to more than double its operating result in the coming years, up to 380 million in 2028, and for total sales to reach 5,000 million euros in 2026 and exceed this amount in 2028. The improvement of the balance sheet and subsequent debt reduction will allow it to recover the dividend, a hook for the most conservative investors. The estimates provided by the firm would aim to reach a pay out (percentage of profit distributed among shareholders) of 30% by 2026. This improvement led managers such as Francisco García Paramés to increase its weight in the portfolio and according to data from Morningstar, Técnicas Reunidas, it is one of the five largest positions in its Cobas Iberia fund, a vehicle that achieved a profitability of 13.4% during the year.
It has recorded 25% in the year and continues to have the potential to advance 22%, to 5.48 euros. 57.1% of analysts advise buying, compared to 35.7% who maintain the recommendation to hold, and only 7.1% opt for selling. One of the strong points of the audiovisual group has been the results of the first nine months. Until September, the company had achieved a net profit of 77.4 million, 8.2% more, thanks to the boost in its income. With a net treasury position of 56 million and strong cash generation, the company is in a position to distribute up to 80% of the profit among its shareholders. As of today, the firm’s dividend yield reaches 9.5%, one of the highest on the Spanish stock market.
Within the index of small companies, known as Ibex Small Cap, the construction company Grupo San José is considered a jewel. Although it has scored 99% so far this year, analysts continue to see its progress, and according to Bloomberg data, they give it a potential of 39.31%, up to 9.62 euros. The weak point of this assessment is that it is only followed by one analysis firm: Banco Sabadell. The entry into force of the Mifid directive in 2018 left small securities without recommendations. The law requires a breakdown of the cost to the client of purchase and sale operations and analysis reports.
The renewable energy company Audax closes the list of values that still have room to rise strongly despite the rally in recent months. Although the clean energy sector is going through a delicate moment after Donald Trump’s victory, analysts who follow the Spanish company give it a potential of 42.1%, up to 2.3 euros. The problem is that, as in the previous case, only three analysis firms (JB Capital, GVC Gaesco and Mob Asset Management) follow the value and advise buying.
