The 2024 municipal elections in Paraíba strengthened party leaders from the center of the state, but have not yet made the electoral scenario for the 2026 election in the state clear.
Among the main uncertainties are the movements of governor João Azevêdo () and the federal deputy (Republicans), candidate for president of the .
Legends from the governor’s base elected 157 mayors, including 8 of those who will command the 10 largest cities. The opposition parties achieved victory in 66 municipalities.
Azevêdo is in his second term. The doubt as to whether he will run for one of the two seats for the Senate in two years’ time clouds predictions.
If he decides to run, he will have to resign in April 2026 and hand over the position to his vice president, Lucas Ribeiro (), who could seek re-election as governor six months later.
Lucas is the son of senator Daniella Ribeiro (PSD) and nephew of federal deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP).
A possible candidacy for the nephew for the government will have to be discussed with the allied base, says Aguinaldo.
“We are going to talk to the base and make an assessment about the path to 2026. This naturally involves a decision by the governor about his position in the 2026 scenario”, he says.
Another name considered to have the governor’s support is that of the state secretary of Infrastructure and Water Resources, Deusdete Queiroga. In this scenario, Azevêdo would serve his term until the end and, in office, he would support his current assistant for the succession.
However, the bet among parties within the government base is that Azevêdo will opt for the Senate race.
Close politicians remember, behind the scenes, that he is pragmatic in his choices and does not want to lose protagonism if he is left without a mandate, citing his political godfather, former governor Ricardo Coutinho (). Both broke up in 2019, a year after Coutinho supported Azevêdo.
Furthermore, the governor is considered a favorite for a Senate race, as he would have the support of the majority of mayors. As a senator, he could also help a possible new government (PT).
In the municipal elections, the PSB won 69 city halls in Paraíba, which has 223 municipalities in total. In second place was , led in the state by the federal deputy , who will contest the election for president with the support of parties that account for 75% of the seats in the House.
Hugo’s party elected 50 mayors in the state, especially in the backlands of Paraíba, where the deputy’s main political stronghold is located. The municipality of Patos (300 km from João Pessoa) is governed by his father, mayor Nabor Wanderley (Republicans).
Before being launched as a candidate to succeed Arthur Lira (PP-AL), Hugo was considered the right name on the government ticket for the Senate in 2026 in Paraíba.
Now, his allies say he could give up the race in favor of a new term as federal deputy. If re-elected, he will be able to run again for president of the Chamber in 2027.
In this scenario, the Republicans could nominate another member to run for the Senate. One of those listed is the president of the Legislative Assembly, Adriano Galdino.
Senator Daniella Ribeiro, mother of the vice-governor, may give up re-election if her son is the candidate for governor. The Ribeiro political group commands the PSD and PP, the party of the re-elected mayor of João Pessoa, Cícero Lucena, in Paraíba. In total, the two parties elected, respectively, 11 and 20 municipal managers.
In opposition, there must be a ticket from the political group formed by União Brasil, MDB and PSDB — the first two acronyms elected 23 mayors each in 2024, and the Tucanos, nine.
The favorites in this political field to run for government are former federal deputy Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB) and senator Efraim Filho (União Brasil).
Cunha Lima was a candidate in 2022 and lost in the second round to Azevêdo in a tight dispute. The toucan reached 47.49% of the valid votes and won in the capital and other cities in the metropolitan region of João Pessoa.
One of the opposition’s victories in 2024 was in Campina Grande, the second largest city in Paraíba, with the re-election of Bruno Cunha Lima (União Brasil), Pedro’s cousin.
Another possibility for the next election is that Efraim will be the candidate for government, and Cunha Lima will run for the Senate.
One name taken for granted in the dispute is that of senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), who will seek re-election. The emedebista is part of the Lula government’s base and hopes to have the president’s support.
Cunha Lima defends that the name of the running mate for the state government be chosen in 2025.
“I believe it is more strategic to have it in advance, because it was needed in 2022. I defend that we do not make the same mistake. By consolidating a name, the entire opposition camp will work for that name a little in advance”, he says.
Another opposition party is , which had 11 elected mayors. Former president Jair Bolsonaro’s party should have its own ticket.
The former Minister of Health and federal deputy Cabo Gilberto are tipped to join the ticket, in addition to pastor Sérgio Queiroz (Novo). By the end of next year, the group must decide who will apply for which position. The PL’s priority in the state is the election to the Senate.
The Bolsonarist group is not considering an initial alliance with the group formed by União Brasil, MDB and PSDB, since Veneziano’s MDB is an ally of Lula. A possible union in the second round, however, is not ruled out for now.
Split, the PT has no indication of its position for 2026. The only consensus is that the party will support whatever is decided by the national leadership, in accordance with Lula’s re-election strategy.
Support from the PT party for the candidacy supported by governor João Azevêdo is not ruled out, at least as a formality. In practice, the chance of internal unity is remote, as Ricardo Coutinho’s group is not on the PSB platform.
X-ray | Paraíba
- Estimated population (2024): 4.145.040
- Voters (2024): 3.218.073
- Territorial area: 56,5 mil km²
- PIB per capita (2021): R$ 19.082
- State budget (2024): R$ 22.9 billion
- State budget for investments (2024): R$3.7 billion
Governor:
Senators:
- Efraim Filho (União Brasil) – 2023-2031
- Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB) – 2019-2027
- Daniella Ribeiro (PSDB) – 2019-2027
Number of city halls by elected parties in 2024
- PSB: 69
- Republicans: 50
- MDB: 23
- Union Brazil: 23
- PP: 20
Voting by party for mayor in 2024 (1st round)
- PP: 420.444
- PSB: 366.761
- Union Brazil: 258.515
- Republicans: 255.499
- MDB: 100.066
Sources: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and Government of Paraíba
