This Wednesday will be the worst day of the heavy rain storm. According to the latest forecasts from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), rainfall will extend throughout the day to a good part of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, although it will rain, above all, in the Mediterranean area, which has already been brutally punished by just two weeks ago. This Wednesday, the situation in two points is of particular concern, and , which are under red notice, the maximum, the first due to an accumulated rainfall in 12 hours of more than 120 liters and the second, of more than 180. A red notice It represents extreme danger to people’s lives and to the integrity of their properties and infrastructure, so there is no need to travel and make sure you are in a safe place, since very heavy rains are going to occur. locally torrential and persistent, causing overflows and flooding.
In addition, it is also feared that among the hardest hit areas will once again be the Valencian Community – the same ground zero of the October dana: north of Alicante, south of Valencia, north of Castellón and, as of the afternoon, also the northern coast of Valencia, where 150 liters per square meter of water will fall in 24 hours, according to .
“These 150 liters planned, under normal conditions, are already many, some floods and river overflows can already occur, the problem is that it will fall in places where the sewage and infrastructure are very damaged, so the impact will be greater,” fears Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the Aemet, in statements to this newspaper. . At this point, Del Campo makes an “important assessment” about Valencia: in the previous dana, “most of the rain was further inland, like in Paiporta, but on the coast it barely rained. In this case, the most intense rain will be on the coast and in the pre-coastal area.”
In the rest of the Mediterranean area, including the Balearic Islands, where it already rained heavily on Tuesday and will continue to do so until noon, lower but important accumulations of 80 liters are expected. The Aemet does not rule out that the dana also discharges abundant amounts of water on the southern slope of the Central system – that is, the mountains of Madrid, the south of Ávila and the north of Extremadura.
⚠️ RED NOTICE | Southern coast of Tarragona.
→ In this area more than 180 l/m² could accumulate in less than twelve hours.
🔴Extreme danger! Avoid travel. River overflows and flooding may occur.
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp)
Due to the drop in temperatures that began on Tuesday and will continue this Wednesday, more pronounced in the southern half, it will continue to snow in the mountain systems during the first hours, but the level will rise and the snowfall will be limited to areas high.
“These are the first heavy snowfalls of the autumn-winter season, with up to 15 centimeters of snow in the Cantabrian mountain range above 1,000 meters,” says the expert, who asks that traffic in the northern half be checked before getting on the road. steering wheel. It will also snow in the Central system – south of Ávila and north of Cáceres – where five centimeters can accumulate also above 1,000 meters. Furthermore, so that not a single detail is missing from this winter storm, the wind will continue to blow with very strong gusts on the Mediterranean and Galician coast and at high altitudes in the northwest quadrant, Central system and eastern Andalusia.
In it . Málaga has a red warning, which was decreed at half past nine on Tuesday night, in the regions of the Costa del Sol, Guadalhorce and Axarquía from 10:00 this Wednesday until midnight, due to an accumulated rainfall in 12 hours of 120 liters, which does not mean that 120 liters will fall, but that 120 is the threshold from which the red is activated. The same happens in Tarragona, more accustomed to torrential rains due to its climate and where the limit for red is higher and is at 180 liters. The red warning, which affects the southern coast of Tarragona, will be in force from 10:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. and was launched even later, at 11:00 p.m.
Aemet puts a lot of thought into it, analyzes many models and variables and when it comes to establishing a red so that the degree of probability of the risk that is announced is very high. The red ones represent just 0.25% of the total of all rain warnings issued throughout Spain since 2020, counting the three levels that exist, that is, only one in every 400 rain warnings in the last five years have been red. In the Valencian Community, there have been a total of 49 reds due to precipitation since 2007, when the Meteoalert system was established, which means less than three per year. 40% of the total occurred in two days: and October 2024.
Both provinces, Málaga and Tarragona, were already in red in the dana two weeks ago. In the eight days it lasted, there were up to nine warnings of these characteristics. Apart from these two maximum warnings, other areas are under an orange warning – the second on a scale of three – for rain, while the warning is yellow – the minimum – for rain, storms, snow or rough seas in Castilla y León , Extremadura, Galicia and Murcia. In the last few hours, the warnings about Asturias and Cantabria have been withdrawn.
⚠️ RED NOTICE | Province of Malaga.
→ Accumulated more than 120 l/m² in twelve hours in the regions of Sol and Guadalhorce and Axarquía during Wednesday, the 13th.
🔴The danger is extreme. River overflows and flooding may occur. Be very careful!
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp)
On Thursday, uncertainty increases “a lot,” Del Campo confesses, but the most likely scenario places the dana to the southwest of the Peninsula, which would extend its tentacles toward western Andalusia. “Very heavy and persistent rains are still likely in Malaga, the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands, but the situation is moving towards the west, with rains in the Strait, the Gulf of Cádiz and the province of Huelva,” warns the spokesperson for the Aemet. In principle, the areas where the largest quantities of water will be collected will be, again, the coast of Valencia and Malaga, with 100 to 150 more liters, and on the coasts of western Andalusia and around the Strait, with 80 to 100 liters.
It will also rain, but much less, in other areas of the Mediterranean area and the center and southwest quadrant of the peninsula. “Without excessive adversity, it can be a fairly rainy day in the central area, especially in the south of Ávila, in the north of Extremadura and the mountains of Madrid, but also in the capital,” says the expert, adding that It will only be two days of cold, as temperatures will rise sharply and noticeably. and yellow in Catalonia and Galicia.
On Friday, the storm will ease and, although it will continue to rain in the Mediterranean area, it will do so with less intensity and in a more dispersed manner. “The greatest probability of precipitation corresponds to the southwestern quadrant, mainly to the coasts of western Andalusia, where the showers could be very strong,” concludes the agency, which points out that, as of Saturday, the most probable scenario is that of a moving away of the Dana towards the Atlantic, which will put an end to the storm.
