ANALYSIS || “If America is withdrawing from the global system, there is room for another entity to step in – and China is one of the few countries that has some capacity and intention to fill that gap.”
World leaders attending major summits are wary of Trump. China’s Xi sees an opportunity
analysis of Simone McCarthyCNN
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As leaders from around the world gather for two major summits in South America in the coming days, the uncertainty brought by Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House is likely to be great.
Many will be grappling with what Trump’s “America First” agenda will mean for the global economy and simmering conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
China, perhaps more than most countries, will be preparing for fractured relations with the United States. But for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the upcoming meetings represent an opportunity, following Trump’s electoral victory, to advance Beijing’s objectives: opening a rift between the US and its allies and presenting China as an alternative leader. and stable.
How Beijing presents itself at the APEC summit of 21 Asia-Pacific economies in Peru this week, followed by a meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies in Brazil next week, could be key to May China weather the coming storm.
In his first term, Trump unleashed a trade and technology war with China and reframed the rising power as an American rival – a path largely followed by his successor Joe Biden, who further angered Beijing by bringing US allies and partners into the fold. its policy towards China.
And with Trump’s second term raising the threat of more heavy tariffs and uncertainty, Xi and his delegation will be carefully calibrating their diplomacy in the two meetings.
President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are among the leaders also expected to attend both summits, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the G20.
“It makes sense for Chinese officials to use these major events to try to shape some of the international narratives at this time,” says Li Mingjiang, associate professor of international relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “Since there is not much time until January 2025.”
The wedge
Trump has proposed applying tariffs of more than 60% to all Chinese imports into the US and could deepen a Biden-era policy that restricts Beijing’s access to sensitive high-tech products. The President-elect also appears to be trying to fill his Cabinet with “anti” China officials, asking Congressman Mike Waltz to be his national security advisor, according to CNN, and Marco Rubio to join the administration as Secretary of State.
Xi’s congratulatory message to Trump last week appeared to highlight some of Beijing’s concerns. The Chinese leader warned that the two countries “will benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation”, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Xi may try to underline that message during a final meeting with Biden, which senior US officials say will take place on Saturday in Lima. Beijing would use this meeting to signal that it wants communication and stability in the relationship, observers say.
And in Beijing’s eyes, global uncertainty about Trump creates an opening for him to destroy what, under Biden, had been growing coordination between the US and its allies in trade, security and other areas to counter the perceived threat from China.
Many of the leaders who worked alongside Biden will be watching carefully how Trump, known for his erratic and transactional diplomacy, might alter their relations when he begins his term in January.
The President-elect has threatened to impose 10% tariffs on goods imported into the US from all countries, including close partners. He called on US allies in Asia to pay more to host US troops – and said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever it wants” to any NATO member country that fails to meet defense spending guidelines.
“China wants to send a signal that it will not be wise to side completely with the US – and to consider working with China as well,” says Liu Dongshu, assistant professor of international affairs at the City University of Hong Kong.
Beijing has already taken steps to improve its relations with key US allies and partners in recent months: for example, opening visa-free entry into China to citizens of several European countries and resuming a trilateral summit with Japan and South Korea .
In October, Xi and another close US partner, Indian leader Modi, met for their first formal bilateral meeting in five years, after reaching an agreement on military disengagement along their contested border – a step significant way to ease tensions.
Earlier this month, Chinese Premier Li Qiang promised leaders and executives at a trade expo that China would further open its market to create “great global opportunities.”
A tough sell?
Xi and his delegation are likely to continue to convey these messages to American partners during the Lima and Rio de Janeiro summits, even as they seek to project China as a leading power dedicated to global stability.
“For the G20 and APEC, China’s message will be: ‘There is great uncertainty ahead, but China is the certainty and will remain committed to peace and development’”, says Yun Sun, director of the China program at the think tank Stimson Center in Washington.
However, Chinese leaders face an uphill struggle to win the trust of US partners in Europe and Asia, observers say.
Regardless of any friction with the future US President, these countries have watched with alarm the intensification of Xi’s aggression in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, at the same time that China supports Russian leader Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine.
Still, they may have no choice but to collaborate more with China if Trump repeats his first-term decisions to withdraw from organizations like the World Health Organization or international agreements like the Paris climate agreement.
Such steps would also reinforce Xi’s long-standing goal of reshaping the liberal international order that he sees as unfairly tilted toward the U.S. — and presenting China as an alternative leader. So far, his vision has found most support in the Global South, where China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative and other development efforts have already expanded Beijing’s influence.
“If America is withdrawing from the global system, there is room for another entity to step in — and China is one of the few countries that has some capacity and intention to fill that gap,” says Liu.
However, China’s ability to do so is related to the strength of its economy and how it faces possible additional pressure from the US, Liu adds.
Therefore, Beijing may proceed with caution both in its diplomacy in the coming days and in its broader international efforts, according to Sun.
“Beijing worries about Trump’s anger and what he could do to harm China’s interests at the bilateral level,” says Sun. “China has to balance its push for global leadership with considerations about relations with the US — and it has to avoid poking Trump in the eye.”
