The total market value of all Rolex Submariner watches ever manufactured is almost US$50 billion (around R$300 billion), based on analysis of the first release of production data by the Swiss watchmaker.
Between 1953 and 2020, nearly 4 million Submariner and Sea Dweller dive watches were produced, according to a company-authorized book titled Submariner: The Watch that Unlocked the Deep.
Subdial, a UK-based second-hand trading platform, estimates that at current prices these watches are worth around $46 billion. This value rises to close to US$50 billion if Submariners manufactured after 2020 are included.
Continues after advertising
The numbers highlight the value retention of some Rolex watches. Several models trade above their retail prices on the secondary market, even though Rolex produces more than 1 million pieces a year, according to analyst estimates.
The Submariner, produced for over 70 years, was designed for deep-sea divers, although it is now more often seen on the wrists of traders of Wall Street or the City of London. The current version dates back to the original model created in 1953.
“When I close my eyes and think about Rolex, the watch that comes to mind is the Submariner,” said Eric Wind, a watch dealer vintage from Florida who previously worked at Christie’s auction house.
Continues after advertising
Rarer submarines may retain value better than higher production models. The total value of a version that collectors called “The Hulk,” with a green dial and bezel, briefly surpassed the comparable standard model during the pre-owned luxury watch market frenzy of 2021, even though Rolex made only half of them between 2010 and 2020, according to Subdial data.
Importantly, the estimated market value for all Rolex dive watches ever produced assumes that almost 4 million pieces are still in existence. Many have certainly been lost or discarded, or are no longer working or repairable.
Still, “it’s staggering to think what $46 billion in Submariners means,” said Subdial co-founder Christy Davis, adding that Rolex has created a “cash cow model” without detracting from the watch’s appeal.
Continues after advertising
Rolex dominates a secondary market for pre-owned luxury watches that is expected to grow to $35 billion annually by 2030, according to Deloitte.
Of the watches in the Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks prices of the 50 most traded models by value, 45 are from Rolex. The index fell 0.6% in October as declines at Rolex and Audemars Piguet offset gains at Patek Philippe.
By brand, Richemont’s Cartier fell the most, with a drop of 1.8% during the month. Swatch Group’s Omega showed the biggest gains, rising 0.6%.
Continues after advertising
Rolex has a vested interest in the pre-owned market, as it recently began selling pre-owned models through its certified pre-owned program.
Still, only 1% of all the watches it produces are sold at any given time, according to Subdial and other major sellers. Even though models like the Daytona chronograph have captured more attention with recent price increases, for collectors and dealers like Wind, the Submariner stands out.
“It’s the watch that many people choose to buy with their first bonus check,” said Wind.
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
Ricardo Bellino from Ensina
How to negotiate and persuade
Learn the art of persuasion from an elite negotiator; learn how to influence and convince people with the strategies of Ricardo Bellino, one of the biggest dealmakers in Brazil.
