Revived or terrified Turkey with his election? For now, he seems to be taking a wait-and-see attitude that the newly elected president does for critical positions in the US government.
Nevertheless, the appreciation of the Turkish lira, immediately after Trump’s victory, shows that economic circles in the country have, for the time being, indeed recovered, foreseeing prospects for closer economic cooperation, among other things, with the USA. Something that the Turkish president himself hinted at.
“The Trump administration sees the economy as one of its priorities. Turkey is a country that offers investment opportunities with its strategic geographical location and population. It is possible to develop new partnerships especially in the fields of energy, infrastructure and technology,” said Recep Tayyip Erdogan, revealing part of the expectations of Ankara, which continues to look for a lifeline to restore its collapsing economy.
Finally, the Turkish president also left open the possibility of the country’s cooperation in the field of technology with Elon Musk, who takes over as head of the agency for government efficiency.
The thorns of Ankara-Washington relations
In recent years, a number of “thorns” have emerged in US-Turkish relations, with Washington’s cooperation with the Kurdish armed forces (YPG) in northern Syria, which Ankara considers “PKK terrorists”, the supply of Russian anti-missile systems S -400 from Turkey and Ankara’s stance in favor of Hamas.
Indicative of the underground nervousness and vigilance of Ankara, in view of the developments in the USA, is the shaking of the name of the presidential son-in-law, former finance minister, Berat Albayrak, on Turkish social media. His return to the cabinet is considered almost certain, as he maintains excellent relations with the re-elected US president and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
In the meantime, the news that the 53-year-old senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, has “locked in” for the position of US Secretary of State seems to have left the Turkish government numb. His sharp criticism of the “Erdogan regime”, his positions on Gaza and the “terrorist Hamas” are known, but also his ties to the system of Erdogan’s number one enemy, a powerful Turkish imam and leader of the organization Hizmet, Fethullah Gülen, who died recently.
“Friendship in politics and commerce does not exist”
One is the “key” in the analyzes of the direction they will take from January 20, the day the new president assumes his duties, American-Turkish relations, the well-known Turkish analyst Murat Getkin argues speaking to Vima: “the fact that Turkey is not urgent priority on Trump’s list. This is an advantage for Erdogan.”
The heartfelt phone call to “friend” Trump from the Turkish president, immediately after his victory, does not prejudge, nor does it reflect anything objective, adds our interlocutor. “Friendship in politics and commerce does not exist,” he says.
However, the relaxation of the tension in the Black Sea with a possible settlement of the Ukrainian “would be beneficial for Turkey”, estimates Getkin, however, considering it unlikely that Trump will for the moment abandon the military cooperation of the Americans with the Kurdish groups linked to the PKK in northern Syria. On the other hand, it is not clear how Israel could stop its military operations. Although “we should not forget that Trump once convinced the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to have relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords. The UAE even participated in joint military exercises with Israel.”
“In Turkey there is a false hope for Trump”
“In Turkey there is a false hope for Trump,” Ali Tirali, head of the Turkish think tank IdeaPolitik Institute, comments to Vima. “People believe that the new US president will probably be neutral, or at least not very involved in Israel’s military activity.” Still, Trump, Tirali continues, “will be much more supportive of Israel and Netanyahu than Biden and Harris. As a result, we will finally see a more “hawkish” Tel Aviv”.
The Turkish analyst does not expect President Erdogan to “fold down” on the Gaza issue, which some analysts believe is imminent if he accepts American pressure. “The official language of Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan continues, for now, to be particularly anti-Israel. The approach between Washington and Ankara on Gaza and the Kurdish factor is expected to remain divergent,” he says.
The appointment of Rubio, one of the architects of the law for the EastMed pipeline, which brought Greece and Cyprus to the center of the American strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean, Tirali calls him in one word a “problem” for both Turkey and Erdogan himself.
Sendat Ergin, a columnist for the pro-government Hurriyet newspaper, predicts Trump’s shift toward policies that differ from the traditional American stance toward NATO, which “will have direct consequences for Turkey.” Finally, there are Turkish analysts who are optimistic that the purchase of F-16s from Turkey can be finalized during the new Trump term.
