The attack in front of the headquarters of the (Supreme Federal Court) intensified discussions among actors involved in the election for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026 around topics such as amnesty for those convicted of the attacks, national pacification and ideological polarization.
After, last Wednesday (13), names that target, from the right, the seat occupied by () spoke out against the politicization of the case, following the former president () in the speech that it was a “wolf lonely”. The PT base rescued the “no amnesty” flag and demanded punishment to inhibit new extremist acts.
who are treated as pre-candidates or act as supporters of an eventual unified right-wing project.
(-GO) and (Novo-MG) used the case to reinforce anti-government rhetoric and nod to Bolsonaro’s electoral spoils. The former president is ineligible, but stands as a candidate, betting on the higher courts and Congress.
On the other hand, (Republicanos-SP) and . (PSD-PR) remained silent, showing how the episode demands calculated steps in the institutional and electoral spheres.
Lula and, after the attack, sought to preserve a rhythm of normality in the government, also without commenting on the case.
However, ministers and allies from different base parties demonstrated alignment with the STF’s reading, associating the attack with the radical discourse of Bolsonarism in recent years, which included the challenge to the 2022 electoral result under unfounded allegations of fraud.
Lula’s aides treated the explosions as an outcome of January 8, reiterating that only punishing those responsible will prevent further occurrences. The tone is close to that used by the STF minister, who linked the case to that of the Bolsonaro government and said that “there is no possibility of pacification with amnesty for criminals”.
The main impact of the attack on Bolsonaro was the immediate setback in the amnesty agenda for those convicted of January 8th. The election, with the expectation of paving a favorable environment for the recovery of the former president’s political rights.
When speaking out, , resorting to the narrative of an isolated incident committed by a person with “mental health disorders”, and called for “national pacification”, at a time when his defense strategy involves moderating his tone and avoiding confrontations with the Judiciary.
Despite attacks and lies about the electoral system, for having what he describes as a “national name”. Without a judicial reversal, the former representative will be left with a supporting role.
The attack also threw cold water on the US election, which is seen as a move in favor of the former president in Brazil.
In Lula’s case, the mobilization of those around him in defense of exemplary punishment for crimes against the democratic rule of law and against amnesty articulations clashes with electoral concerns, after the municipal election showed and .
The president participates in conversations in which he is advised to leave behind and reorganize ministries and communication for the second half of the government. There is an assessment that the harsh tone against the coup reinforces the image of revanchism and persecution of the right.
Vocalized by supporters, the cries of “no amnesty” nevertheless gained new momentum after last week’s episode. Datafolha research from March this year showed that for those involved in the depredations of January 8th.
Commenting on the attack, the minister (Institutional Relations), of the PT, held “extreme right-wing leaders” responsible for “this culture of hatred, intolerance, encouragement of [que] makes people commit crimes” against democratic institutions, such as the Supreme Court.
The Minister (Planning), of , declared that it is necessary to maintain vigilance as long as “whistles” that encourage attacks remain. “In , ‘wolves’ are never lonely,” he said. (Racial Equality), from the PT, said that “it was never and will never be an isolated act”.
On the opposite side, senator (-PI), former Bolsonaro minister, .
“Instead of assigning blame from one party to another, we would do well to reduce the temperature of the political debate, bringing back dialogue as a basic rule,” he stated.
The federal deputy (PL-SP), son of the former president, , with the “malicious purpose of “. One of the conservatives’ arguments is that only forgiveness will bring national reconciliation.
Opposition governors who commented on the attack took advantage of the speeches to send messages.
Caiado blamed Lula, turning the debate towards public security. He, who, stated that the country has a “lack of command” and “absence of a strong leader” and that “a weak and apathetic federal government […] kneels before the advance of organized crime and extremism”.
Zema, who echoes Bolsonarist agendas, endorsed the view that the attack committed by Francisco was isolated. The Minas Gerais native also sought to exempt the PL, saying that “no party is exempt from having a madman among the possible candidates”.
Lula (PT)
The President did not comment on the case until this Sunday (17) and maintained the agenda. Aides and allies refuted the author’s “lone wolf” thesis and linked the episode to Bolsonaro and the extreme right, rejecting the possibility of amnesty for 8/1 convicts
Jair Bolsonaro (PL)
Ineligible, the former president sought to distance himself from the episode, treating it as an “isolated fact”, and called for peace. The case represents a setback for the attempt to pardon the 8/1 prisoners and pave the way for a remote reversal of their ineligibility
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)
Governor of São Paulo adopted silence about the attack. Considered one of Bolsonarism’s pre-candidates for the 2026 election, he, who he called “political prisoners”
Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR)
Governor of Paraná also did not comment. Lula’s opponent, treated as one of the right-wing alternatives for the presidential dispute, detaching himself from the PT administration
Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO)
Governor of Goiás linked the attack in Brasília to the “lack of command” and “absence of a strong leader” in the country. Declared a pre-candidate for 2026, he used the case to point out the Lula government’s inefficiency in security, given the rise of organized crime and extremism.
Romeu Zema (Novo-MG)
Governor of Minas Gerais rejected the possibility that the attack was part of a larger movement, echoing the Bolsonaro thesis of an “isolated act”, committed by “someone in deep emotional imbalance”. He also exempted the PL, to which the author was affiliated, from liability
