Russia is advancing, Ukraine is in difficulties. The war has followed the same dynamic for months, but the framework of the conflict – which is about to exceed 1,000 days tomorrow – is destined to also be marked by other factorsin addition to military operations. And that is why, if kyiv and suffer, Moscow and they cannot look to the future calmlyespecially beyond the 12 to 18 month horizon. They cannot have extreme confidence in their successes.
It is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)an American thought tank that follows the conflict daily, beyond the news coming from the front.
The Russian armed forces, their experts say, They are steadily advancing towards Donetsk and preparing to launch an attack to retake the Kursk regionwhich has been invaded by Ukraine since early August.
“The Russians constantly have the initiative and they are exploiting the advantages at a tactical level”, . “The Russians act and force the Ukrainians to act in response and this is not good” for kyiv. “If you are always forced to be on the defensive, you lose wars. You find yourself cornered, with the possibility of choosing only between bad options,” he summarizes.
In recent days, Russia pressure has increased in the area of the city of Kupiansk, northeastern Ukraine. The conquest of the city, liberated by the Ukrainians in September 2022, would allow the invaders to control two key supply routes and develop new attack plans against Kharkiv.
The situation for the Ukrainian armed forces is also complicated in the south, with the city of Kurakhov in the enemy’s sights. In reality, according to ISW assessments, the possible loss of Kurakhove would not constitute excessive strategic damage to kyiv. The city is located about 40 kilometers from Pokrovsk, a fundamental logistics center. For months, the city seemed ready to capitulate. And instead, Ukrainian units resisted, forcing Moscow to change plans and strategies.
The ‘Pokrovsk case’ and Russia’s difficulties
However, the call caso Pokrovsksays Barros, is a wake-up call for Russia: “He tried to conquer the city and failed, until he changed his plan”. Since the beginning of the year, after conquering the ruins of Avdiivka, the Russian army has gained about 40 kilometers of land. Not few, but not many considering the price paid in terms of dead soldiers and lost equipment. “Losing five tank divisions in one year to advance 40 kilometers… It is really a terrible result”observes the specialist.
Russia has more men and more weapons, but it does not have unlimited time at its disposal. Putin, highlights the ISW, cannot ignore factors that will end up influencing the war commitment. The Russian economy shows signs of “overheating“: the inflation rampant, companies are struggling to find workers and interest rates have skyrocketed to 21%.
And last but not least, Russia also has to face the loss of thousands of men. The last partial mobilization caused hundreds of thousands of potential soldiers to flee. “The economic situation, the shortage of men and the massive loss of assets will create problems for the Kremlin if the war is fought at this pace next year,” says Barros.
“The economic situation, the shortage of men and the massive loss of assets will create problems for the Kremlin if the war is fought at this pace next year”
“If the Western international coalition, including the United States, continues to support the Ukrainians over the next 12, 16 or 18 monthsthere will be opportunities to change really the way the Russians have financed this war.” kyiv’s allies “can decide whether the Russians will win or lose.”
