The Brazilian government expects greater economic growth, with inflation very close to the target ceiling. The projections of the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance, released this Monday morning (18), for GDP had a slight increase, from 3.2% to 3.3%. The IPCA rose from 4.25% to 4.4%.
Even with the increase in inflation projections, the government expects a slowdown in the prices of monitored items, reflecting the expected changes in electricity tariff flags. Unregulated prices, however, are expected to continue accelerating. Issues such as exchange rate and climate should continue to put pressure on the IPCA.
The SPE attributes the small change in expectations for the expansion of economic activity to a slight increase in GDP projections in the third quarter. For the following two quarters, the indication is that this growth will continue, although at a slower pace than that observed in the first two quarters of 2024.
Government projections continue to diverge from those of the financial market. The Ministry of Finance signals lower inflation. The midpoint of projections made by financial institutions is 4.64%, according to the Focus bulletin from the Central Bank (BC), also released this Monday. It is the seventh consecutive week of increase.
As for GDP, financial market expectations are less optimistic. The Focus signals growth of 3.1% for GDP this year.
