The Brazilian government waits. The projections of the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance, released this Monday morning (18), for GDP recorded a slight increase, from 3.2% to 3.3%. Estimates for the IPCA rose from 4.25% to 4.4%.
Even with this, the government predicts a slowdown in the prices of monitored items, reflecting the expected changes in electricity tariff flags. Unregulated prices, on the other hand, are expected to continue accelerating. Factors such as exchange rate and climate remain pressures on the IPCA.
The SPE attributes the small revision in expectations for economic expansion to a slight increase in projections for third-quarter GDP. For the last two quarters, the indication is that growth will continue, although at a more moderate pace compared to that observed in the first half of 2024.
Government projections continue to diverge from those of the financial market. The Ministry of Finance projects lower inflation. According to the Central Bank (BC) Focus Bulletin, also released this Monday, the midpoint of estimates made by financial institutions is 4.64%, marking the seventh consecutive week of increase.
For GDP, financial market expectations are less optimistic than those of the government. The Focus Bulletin points to a 3.1% growth in GDP this year.
Red in public accounts should be lower, financial market projects
Other data released by the SPE show that the midpoint of projections for the 2024 primary deficit fell, in September, for the second consecutive month. From January to September 2024, the median projections for the primary deficit fell from R$86.14 billion to R$66.66 billion. In the last bulletin, the estimate was a deficit of R$81.42 billion.
The primary deficit projection of R$66.66 billion for the year, registered in September, represents the lowest estimate for the 2024 deficit since the beginning of the historical series.
