The G20 leaders’ summit, which takes place this Monday and Tuesday in Rio de Janeiro, is seen by international policy analysts as one of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) last bets to try to recover the image of his foreign policy, worn down by nods to Iran, controversial statements about the war in Ukraine and the lack of condemnation of election fraud in Venezuela.
The meeting’s agenda may represent an opportunity for Brazilians to reconnect with Western nations. This weekend, for example, Lula has already spoken with the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In the assessment of professor Elton Gomes, from the Political Science department at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), the presence of these leaders can be seen as an attempt to “give a chance” to Lula, who went so far as to accuse Western nations of sponsoring the war in Eastern Europe, between Russia and Ukraine.
The Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty is one of Lula’s main initiatives for this summit. The program, which seeks to create international coordination to mobilize financial resources with the intention of implementing and expanding actions to combat hunger, was joined by at least 80 countries – which has been seen as a victory for Lula, host of the summit.
The event, however, has already started under tension due to the divergence of countries in relation to the final declaration of the event, especially regarding the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, and the perspective of opposition that Javier Milei’s Argentina should make to the proposals of Brazil on topics such as gender policy, climate and taxation of large fortunes.
Analysts interviewed by the report highlight that the PT member’s success in restoring his image will depend on how he deals with such impasses.
Impasses over war are challenges for Lula at the G20
Despite being an originally economic forum, political issues have been discussed at the last G20 summits, especially the ongoing wars in the world. Conflicts, especially the one between Russia and Ukraine, have contributed to an increasingly polarized global scenario, which makes it difficult to build consensus between nations. This division of interests between Western countries and other regional blocs has increased diplomatic tensions, which are reflected in the bloc of the 20 largest economies in the world.
In the last two leaders’ summits, the bloc was unable to reach consensus on a term in the final declaration that cited the war in Ukraine. On the one hand, countries like the United States defended the inclusion of a paragraph in the document condemning the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory, on the other hand, Russia itself, supported by China, vetoed terms in this regard. The same occurs in relation to the armed conflict taking place in the Middle East, between Israel and Hamas terrorists.
This bloc’s inability to reach a consensus on the declaration has also been a challenge for the Brazilian presidency at the head of the bloc. Over the past week, Brazilian negotiators met in Rio de Janeiro together with peers from the other 20 organizations participating in the G20 to try to find a consensus on all the terms set out in the summit’s final declaration. The paragraphs that mention the wars in Europe and the Middle East are the ones that move countries away from a consensus.
The issue became even more sensitive over the weekend, after Russia intensified attacks on Ukraine and the United States allowed the country led by Volodymyr Zelensky to attack Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the Americans.
Despite the impasse, the Brazilian government has already declared that it will not give up on addressing the issues. “This is an important topic: […] the issue of the war in Ukraine and the Palestinian situation in the Middle East. There is a discussion between governments to reach a consensual language on these two topics”, informed the sherpa of Brazil at the G20, Mauricio Lyrio, last week.
In Elton Gomes’ view, this Brazilian stance could put President Lula’s foreign policy even more into question. According to the analyst, the lack of consensus among countries and Brazil’s interest in addressing sensitive topics could cause an even greater “disruption” in Brazilian foreign policy.
“If the G20, in these circumstances, does not generate concrete results or a minimum consensus among the participants, this could compromise not only Brazil’s image, but the very possibility of carrying out any more institutionalized cooperation mechanism, such as the COP itself. 30”, says Gomes, referring to the United Nations Climate Summit that Brazil will host next year.
Trump’s victory could boost speech against Lula at the G20
Even though Trump will only assume the presidency of the United States in 2025, his victory should also emerge as a dilemma for Lula during the G20. In the assessment of Professor of International Relations at the University of São Paulo (USP) Pedro Feliú, Trump’s re-election to the White House could be “fuel for these anti-globalist positions taken by President Milei” and other right-wing leaders participating in the meeting.
Milei identifies himself as a libertarian and, like the future president of the United States, is contrary to globalist ideals. The Argentine president is also attending the G20 meetings next week and has demonstrated that he can be a strong objection to Lula’s plans during the summit.
Throughout this year, Milei’s Argentina has shown signs that it should oppose Brazil’s agenda at the head of the G20. In October, during P20 Women, which brought together G20 parliamentarians to discuss gender equality and the inclusion of women in representative positions, the country refused to sign the meeting’s final declaration. The document, in one of its points, intended to recognize that girls and women face specific inequalities due to gender around the world.
More recently, during a meeting of parliamentarians from G20 member countries that took place in Brasília, the Argentine government also did not sign the final declaration. The text, which had recommendations to be presented during next week’s leaders’ summit, dealt with the objectives proposed by the Brazilian presidency at the head of the G20, such as sustainable development and global economic cooperation.
The projection is that the Argentine government will repeat these guidelines in the coming days, during the negotiation and formulation of the final declaration, especially around themes that revolve around left-wing identity agendas, with which the Lula government identifies and the current Argentine government is opposed.
Vitélio Brustolin, professor of international relations at Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) and researcher at Harvard University, also indicates that Trump’s election could deflate COP-30, one of Lula’s big bets in foreign policy. With the uncertainty and the fear that next year will be marked by Trump’s abandonment of agendas that are dear to Lula, the G20 summit presents itself as an opportunity for the Brazilian to try to reverse the erosion that has caused Brazilian foreign policy.
What is the G20 and why does the summit take place in Brazil
The G20 is a bloc made up of 19 countries (South Africa, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, South Korea, United States, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, United Kingdom , Russia and Turkey) and two regional bodies: the European Union and the African Union, the latter being the last member added to the bloc.
The group was created with the aim of promoting economic discussions and, this year, Brazil is the rotating president of the bloc and defined the agendas for debate by the group. The theme of Brazilian management at the G20 is “Building a Fair World and a Sustainable Planet”.
Brazil’s presidency is based on three pillars of discussion: social inclusion with the fight against hunger and poverty; energy transition and sustainable development; and global governance reform. The themes are old Lula agendas and were the focus of the G20 this year.
Still within the scope of the G20, the Brazilian government has invested in two platforms, the Global Alliance Against Hunger and the taxation of the super-rich, an initiative that proposes a minimum rate of 2% in tax payments on large fortunes for the billionaire portion of the population. worldwide.
Throughout the year, Brazil hosted several meetings and encounters, from the most diverse sectors, to find solutions and proposals to promote the agenda proposed by Brazil. The meetings also sought to facilitate support and implementation of the platforms mentioned above.
In addition to the bloc’s member countries, around 30 other delegations were invited to participate in the G20 Leaders’ Summit, between countries and international organizations. The meeting in the capital of Rio will also be marked by the transition of the presidency to the next country that takes over the G20. South Africa presides over the bloc for the next year and, in 2026, the United States will take over.
Since last year, the group’s presidency has operated in the triple method, uniting the predecessor, current and successor countries in the presidency – the idea is to continue the work between the presidencies. Therefore, next year, Brazil will be serving as president of the G20 alongside South Africa and the United States, which will already have President Donald Trump as head of the White House.
