Change is due to the positive performance of the economy observed in the third quarter of this year; inflation outlook has also been adjusted
The revised its forecasts for growth in 2024, increasing expectations from 3.2% to 3.3%. This change is due to the positive performance of the economy observed in the third quarter. Additionally, projections for inflation have also been adjusted, with inflation now estimated at 4.40%, an increase from the previous forecast of 4.25%. The new projection for GDP in 2024 exceeds the initial estimate of 2.2%. With regard to the agricultural sector, the forecast was changed from -1.9% to -1.7%. On the other hand, the services sector is expected to show growth of 3.4%. For 2025, GDP growth expectations remain at 2.5%. In relation to inflation, the IPCA should approach the upper limit of the target established by , with a forecast of an increase of 3.60% for 2025, which is higher than the previous estimate of 3.40%.
This adjustment takes into account the expected increase in animal protein prices and the appreciation of the . Macroeconomic variables play a crucial role in budget estimates, as they affect both tax collection and spending on social benefits. GDP growth can result in greater revenue, but it also puts pressure on expenses, especially in relation to the minimum wage, which could be corrected by 3.3% above inflation in 2026. The government’s economic team is currently developing a plan to contain spending, which aims to limit the real increase in the minimum wage to the growth percentages of the fiscal framework. This strategy can generate significant savings, estimated at R$11 billion by 2026.
*Report produced with the help of AI
Published by Matheus Oliveira
