ANALYSIS || A phone call is causing an uproar among Ukraine’s supporters. Starting point: in Europe there must be “someone who talks to Putin now that Trump is about to do the same”
Ukraine allies in uproar as Trump-led diplomacy approaches
Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh (in London), Alex Marquardt (in Washington DC) and Saskya Vandoorne (Paris), CNN
editor’s note This article contains two graphic contents that are inserted in the original in English
A thousand days after the start of Europe’s toughest war since the fight against the Nazis, the starting gun appears to have been fired for peace talks in Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unilateral decision to call Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday ended almost two years of isolation of the Kremlin chief by top NATO leaders.
It was bad news for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a 72-hour period marked by the White House finally acceding to his call for long-range US action against Russia. Zelensky fumed that the phone call opened “Pandora’s box” because he considers it “extremely important to weaken Putin’s isolation.”
Hours later, Zelensky appeared to recognize the momentum of the talks, saying that when US President-elect Donald Trump takes power “the war will end sooner”, as that was the promise Trump made to his voters.
Scholz said his phone call with Putin revealed that the Russian leader’s hardline positions on Ukraine had not changed, but added that it was important for Europe to speak to Putin if Trump was about to do the same.
The hour-long conversation marked the return of diplomacy to the decade-old conflict, even if the conversation brought up the familiar refrain that it was not yet time to talk about.
The call was a blow to a Western alliance experiencing widespread anxiety about the outcome of the conflict in light of Trump’s election, according to more than 10 interviews CNN conducted over the past week with current and former officials and diplomats. .
A Western official said there was “general collective holding of breath” in Western capitals ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
“The Germans talking to Putin – that would have gone down badly” among Ukraine’s allies, this source said. “Giving Putin this positive boost will have angered the French and others.” French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal about continued support for Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on ”. “The next few weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself but also for our future.”
The Biden administration’s decision to allow ATACM missiles to be fired into Russian territory is perhaps a reflection of the growing sense of escalation in the war, even as possible peace talks loom, as all sides seek to improve their position ahead of Trump’s presidency. Trump.
Analysts say Scholz’s action was driven by the imminent German elections.
Scholz is entering the election campaign as a “peacemaker” to secure votes that might otherwise be attracted by the pro-Moscow tendency of some German opposition,” says Alena Epifanova, researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Epifanova said the move may appeal to similar sympathies in Scholz’s own SPD party, but “it is otherwise very unfortunate for Ukraine.”
A diplomat familiar with the mood inside NATO headquarters described uncertainty within the Alliance regarding Trump’s stance on continued support for Ukraine and peace talks, describing the next few months as critical on the battlefield.
The uncertainty was confirmed by a senior Ukrainian intelligence official, who told CNN: “It is very dangerous to make predictions now. We hope for the best!”
Most analysts speculate that any agreement would involve a rough freeze on the front lines, with Moscow and Kiev giving or receiving security guarantees to prevent a rekindling of the conflict. Russia continues to make small but consistent gains on the eastern frontline and would swallow up about a fifth of Ukraine if the frontlines were negotiated as new permanent borders. Critics of the Kremlin also warn of its history of using diplomacy as a respite or obstacle to the pursuit of its military goals.
A French defense official said: “Discussions surrounding the future of Ukraine have come to a boil” since Trump’s election – and it was at the heart of these negotiations that security guarantees for Ukraine were.
“What kind of concessions will Russia accept?” asked the official. “Does Russia keep all the areas it took? And if we freeze the status quo, will the war really be over? Can there be peace? Or will we see acts of sabotage and subversion?”
Pledges from the Biden administration and Europe have increased assistance to Kiev in recent weeks, intended to indicate that Kiev’s support is assured in the coming months.
A second Western official said a recent G7 agreement to lend 47.3 billion euros to Ukraine, based on profits from frozen Russian assets, “means that essentially Ukraine is financially secure by 2025.”
Some analysts suggest that the details of a possible Trump peace plan remain unclear, as the President-elect has not yet formulated a strategy or chosen personnel who can do so. Trump said he could end the war in a day but did not say how he would do it.
His new national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has said almost nothing about politics since taking the job, but he wrote three days before the election in the Economist that fighting “’as long as it takes’ in a war of attrition against a greater power It’s a recipe for failure.”
Allies have struggled to read the limited signals from the new White House. One European diplomat puts it this way: “We take Trump at his word that he will move towards a negotiated solution,” adding that the Trump camp has been cautious in discussing his policy, listening but revealing little, without saying ‘this is the plan’ ‘”.
Trump supporters have, in part, sought to dispel the idea that the President-elect would seek peace at any cost to Kiev.
Kurt Volker, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine in the Republican’s first term, said that Trump’s initial move should be to “demonstrate strength” so that Putin realizes that it is not worth continuing to fight – “Trump has said many times ‘peace through force’”.
Volker said he thought Trump would provide loans rather than more aid to Ukraine.
“I’m not convinced he’s going to reduce aid to zero. I believe it’s going to be a lend-lease program,” which Volker says will garner broad Republican support, referring to a World War II-era program under which U.S.-made material was effectively loaned to the Allies. but not returned.
Volker said he felt Trump would be influenced by the U.S. “catastrophe” in Afghanistan under Biden.
Trump “wanted to leave Afghanistan himself, but he never did because he was always told that was what would happen,” said Volker.
“He doesn’t want to have this kind of catastrophe. He will try to find a way to end the war, but Ukraine survives.”
Waltz’s appointment as national security adviser and Senator Marco Rubio’s appointment as secretary of state could increase attention to Moscow’s front-line introduction of North Korean troops and weaponry, Western officials suggested.
The move could backfire on Putin, according to these officials, transforming the Ukrainian frontline into a more global arena, where the United States must now face Indo-Pacific foes such as Kim Jong Un and his occasional backer, Beijing. .
A former American diplomat familiar with Trump’s approach explained that the President-elect’s controversially friendly attitude toward the Kremlin chief stemmed from the fact that Trump did not want to “demonize adversaries or people with whom he has to make deals.” “He will make political decisions that are difficult or allow others to do so,” but he wants “to have a relationship.”
The former diplomat said Moscow’s deceitful history in negotiations is the reason Kiev must be properly armed as part of any deal. “Putin will not be sincere – let’s be clear. He will ask for things that are unreasonable. And even if he agrees to a ceasefire, he will continue to plan a new attack for later.”
