Vitória sees the distance for the Z4 to decrease, but has a 78% chance of remaining in Series A

The fight against relegation remains intense in the Brazilian Championship, and Vitória’s duel against Criciúma, this Wednesday, at the Heriberto Hulse stadium, will have an extra weight for the red and black. After gaining important positions in the table and breathing a sigh of relief, Leão is once again just one point away from Z4 and needs to score away from home to stay as far away from the last places as possible.

Athletico-PR’s 1-0 victory over Atlético-MG, on Saturday, in a delayed game of the 19th round, took the team from Paraná out of the relegation zone, placed Juventude among the last four placed and put pressure on their opponents. Now, with all Brasileirão teams having played 33 matches, the fight to not compete in Série B in 2025 has become even more tangled.

From Vitória, currently 13th, with 38 points, to Juventude, 17th, with 37, the difference is just one point. In this interval, Athletico-PR, Fluminense and Criciúma appear with the same score as the club from Rio Grande do Sul. Therefore, the confrontation with Criciúma took on an even more decisive tone for Vitória.

The game against Tigre, away from home, opens the last five commitments that Leão has in Series A. In addition to the duel at Heriberto Hulse, the Bahian team will have at least one more direct duel in the final stretch, as in the 37th round they face Grêmio, currently 14th place, with 39 points, in Barradão. The sequence also includes: Botafogo (away), Fortaleza (at home) and Flamengo (away).

If they beat Criciúma away from home, Vitória could open up to four points away from the zone, in the best scenario. If they return from Santa Catarina with a defeat, the team can end the round within Z4. Therefore, internally, players and coaching staff pay extra attention to achieving a positive result.

“I continue to trust that we will fight until the end for what we always say, which is permanence. A month ago, many considered Vitória to be relegated. Today, we are talking about South America. But we have to maintain balance”, said coach Thiago Carpini.

Currently, Vitória has a 78.5% chance of remaining in the first division. The calculations are from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and take into account the performance of each club in Series A and the sequence of opponents. Last placed and second to last, respectively, Atlético-GO and Cuiabá appear with more than a 98% probability of playing in Series B and are practically relegated.

Under the command of Thiago Carpini, Leão has had a good campaign in the second round and won 23 points in 14 matches. The 54.8% success guarantees the team in 7th place in the return. If they maintain their performance in the final stretch, the red and black team has a good chance of staying in the first division, as they would win around eight of the 15 points in dispute and finish Series A with 46. According to the UFMG mathematics department, with this score, a team has just 0.007% of being relegated.

With 45 points, a number normally considered “magic” to escape sticking, the risk of falling is only 23%. In the recent history of the Brasileirão, some teams have already managed to remain in Series A with even lower scores. In 2019, for example, Ceará guaranteed its permanence with 39 points. Last year, rival Bahia saved itself with 44.