The results of the October polls in the cities of the state suggest a favorable scenario for the right-wing and center-right camps for the 2026 election in the state, with the strengthening of the current governor’s group, (), and a list of names from his party willing to succeed him at the Iguaçu Palace.
In the 2024 elections, the PSD was the party with the highest number of victories in the 399 city halls in dispute. Ratinho Junior’s party captured 164 cities, comfortably distancing itself from the other parties. The , which has the senator as a possibility to run for government in 2026, won 30 municipalities.
But União Brasil’s main defeat was in Curitiba, where federal deputy Rosângela Moro (União Brasil), the senator’s wife, was a candidate for vice-mayor on the ticket headed by state deputy Ney Leprevost (União Brasil). The duo came in fourth place, with 6.49%, and, at the end of the elections, Leprevost still stated that Moro hindered the campaign.
“I will not be with him for government in 2026. If he is the União Brasil candidate, I will have to leave the party,” Leprevost told Sheet last month.
In the PSD, there is already a line of interested parties in the dispute for the Government of Paraná, such as federal deputies Beto Preto and Sandro Alex, both licensed for positions as state secretaries, and Guto Silva, in charge of the Planning department. But the two strongest names in the PSD for the vacancy are state deputy Alexandre Curi and the mayor of Curitiba, Rafael Greca.
Grandson of Aníbal Khury (1924-1999), who was one of the most powerful politicians in Paraná, Alexandre Curi is in his sixth term as state deputy — in 2022, he was the most voted for the Legislative Assembly, which he will preside from the year coming.
In the 2024 elections, Curi ran around Paraná and estimates that he will have 170 elected mayors supported by him. But it was his participation in the victory in the capital that made him stronger within the PSD. He took over the coordination of Eduardo Pimentel’s (PSD) campaign in the second round of the dispute for Mayor of Curitiba, when the group was taken by surprise with the rise of Cristina Graeml (PMB).
Rafael Greca, who in the first round was considered Pimentel’s main godfather, ended up the target of attacks by Cristina Graeml and had his image less explored in the final stretch of the campaign. Furthermore, the current mayor will be without a mandate from next year, distancing himself from the electorate.
But the PSD also recorded poor results in important cities in Paraná, where other right-wing forces fared better at the polls. Although it won the mayorships of Curitiba and Londrina, the PSD lost in Maringá and did not even go to the second round in Ponta Grossa.
In Maringá, the victor was the PP, which in Paraná is in the hands of Ricardo Barros, a federal deputy licensed to be Ratinho Junior’s secretary and former leader of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government in the Chamber of Deputies. The mayor elected in the city in the first round, with 65.57% of the votes, was Silvio Barros, brother of Ricardo Barros.
In Ponta Grossa, Elizabeth Schmidt (União Brasil) took over the mayor’s office, with Moro’s involvement in the campaign.
In the general ranking, after the PSD, which won 164 city halls, come the PP (61 city halls) and Bolsonaro’s (52 city halls). In 2026, both the PP and PL may ally with a possible PSD candidate for government, but the two parties will possibly present names for the Senate.
In the PP, Ricardo Barros himself is one of those listed to compete for one of the two seats in the election — which are currently occupied by senators Oriovisto Guimarães (Podemos) and Flávio Arns (PSB). Another is federal deputy Pedro Lupion (PP), president of the FPA (Agricultural Parliamentary Front).
In the PL, Filipe Barros, federal deputy from the radical right, is one of the names mentioned. Bolsonaro supporter and former federal deputy Paulo Martins (PL) has weakened for the Senate race in 2026.
Although elected vice-mayor of Curitiba on the PSD ticket, Martins ended up overshadowed by Cristina Graeml and the candidate’s unofficial alliance with Bolsonaro.
Cristina Graeml has booked herself into 2026 after the 2024 polls, but there is no definition as to which position she would run for and for which party — her departure from the PMB is taken for granted.
Governor Ratinho Junior himself, who is already in his second term at Palácio Iguaçu, could run for the Senate for the PSD, but the scenario is uncertain. He already is, but the PSDB continues with its feet in two canoes: it is an ally of (Republicans) and also of the president ().
On the left, there are also names flirting with running for the Senate in 2026, such as federal deputy Zeca Dirceu (PT) and state deputy Requião Filho (PT). Another name that is always mentioned, both for the Senate and for the Government of Paraná, is that of the federal deputy, national president of the PT.
But parties linked to the left still assimilate the poor performance in the 2024 polls. In Paraná, the PT held only 3 town halls in October. PDT and PSB did better: they scored 5 and 14, respectively.
The biggest frustration on the left was in the capital, where the PT was part of the coalition led by PSB/PDT, which did not go to the second round.
In 2026, for the government election, the PT does not rule out launching its own candidate and sees former federal deputy Ênio Verri as a possibility. Verri has Itaipu Binacional in his hands and was once state secretary of Planning during the Roberto Requião administration.
In 2022, Requião was the defeated PT candidate for government and, this year, he ran for Mayor of Curitiba affiliated with Mobiliza, finishing seventh, with 1.83%.
