Game Theory Mathematics Says Trump Won’t Do Everything He Threatens

Donald Trump says he will end the war in Ukraine and abandon Taiwan to its fate. Threats abound — but Game Theory tells us that their actions will likely fall short of what the US president promises.

A Game Theory is a branch of Applied Mathematics that analyzes different strategic scenarios in which two players take opposing actions (in most cases, they have to choose whether to “go”fight or flight”) to try to optimize your earnings.

Millions of people fear that Donald Trump will fulfill the threats he made throughout his campaign: ranging from “end the war in Ukraine in one day”abandoning all the support they give to this country, abandoning Taiwan, risking a invasion by China to this country.

The explains that one of the lessons of game theory, the mathematical study of cooperation and competitionmay be relevant in this case — in particular with regard to the scenario referred to as the ” or “falcon-dove” game, which provides a model of conflict between two actors.

This scenario translates well what it is: imagine that two young people are playing a video game in which they drive cars. Young people will have to choose between risk having an accident and continue driving or swervingand whoever chooses this last option loses points.

If they both dodge, the game is over, but if they both crash, it’s much worse. However, if one swerves and the other doesn’t crash but continues driving, the latter wins the top prize.

The table below illustrates the points for each situation described.

According to The Conversation, the “game of chicken” was to model nuclear deterrence. In this case, a first attack that destroys the opponent is the equivalent of leading when the opponent dodges. This then means that when both players launch attacks simultaneously, the result is much worse than the zero represented in the matrix.

The key to winning the game is convince your opponent that you are willing to continue driving at all costs. The Conversation gives the example of young people in video games, who often “ostensibly play the steering wheel” to show that they are all in and that there is no turning back.

According to the newspaper, this is what Trump does: blatantly declares what he is going to do, largely to “test” his opponent and try to understand their response — do they steer or steer? Furthermore, experts point out, Trump is unpredictable, a factor that suits him very well in this game.

For example, in 2019, Trump made history for North Korea, being the first US leader to do so, recalls The Conversation.

In that meeting with the country’s president, Trump suggested that this was the beginning of a new era of friendship between nations, and suggested that he was the only person who could do it.

But his attempt to consolidate an alliance with North Korea and stop its nuclear program. In this case, Trump’s unpredictability didn’t work.

But there were times when he was more successful: “In his first term, Trump sought to weaken the NATO alliance by insulting US allies. And yours Threats to cut off U.S. support helped achieve his goal of persuading NATO member countries with the defense. This was exactly what he expected”, writes the newspaper.

Trump is unpredictable, and that makes him a big car video game player — or a confused geopolitical strategist.

Experts at The Conversation even believe that if Putin refuses a potential peace deal with Ukraine proposed by Trump, or if he accepts it and then resumes the war during his presidency, the US president could take this fact and turn against the Russian president.

In any case, Trump knows how to play Game Theory: it’s good because it’s unpredictable, and the unpredictability and recklessness can pay off and help you achieve your goal.

What is your objective? No one knows for sure, but Game Theory tells us to pay attention to the next steps — the result could be much worse than zero.