While the international markets are waiting for some European reaction to his return to the White House, in Brussels the pro-European coalition is faced with an impasse for the election of the new Commission, which has the task of implementing the – according to many the only way for the Old Continent –
Last week the final round of hearings for its executive vice president candidates Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament it did not have a positive outcome due to disagreements of the pro-European parties.
Cross-categories and hits
Specifically, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) opposed the Spanish Socialist candidate for Commission vice-president Teresa Ribeira. Spain’s centre-right Popular Party (official opposition) is reportedly lobbying the Euroright to reject the candidate in order to hurt its socialist government Pedro Sanchez in Madrid. Accordingly, the Eurosocialists put a block on Rafael Fitothe chosen Italian prime minister Georgia Meloniwho may come from the hard right of the European Conservatives, is nevertheless openly supported by the EPP, although she herself did not vote for von der Leyen.
The Eurosocialists refuse to support Fito, claiming that the EPP violates the post-election “deal” of the pro-European forces – EPP, Eurosocialists, Liberals, who supported the election of von der Leyen – not to participate far-right in high European posts.
After the hearings, all of the commissioners would have to get the approval of a majority of the European Parliament’s plenary, otherwise the Commission falls altogether, a scenario many describe as disastrous. The pro-European coalition has the majority (401 out of 720 seats) to elect the next Commission as a whole, but if the Eurosocialists do not vote there is a problem.
In this case, the EPP will look to its right for majorities by voting alongside far-right parties such as its Patriots for Europe Viktor Orban and Meloni’s European Conservatives. It has already done so recently at a legislative level, especially in individual issues related to the environment and the Green Deal. This version, however, is expected to put the liberal wing of the EPP in a difficult position as well as Von der Leyen herself. “Politically, von der Leyen cannot afford to have her Commission elected by a right-wing majority” an EPP source with knowledge of the discussions told “Vima”. The EPP source added that the two major parties took the situation to extremes “creating unnecessary chaos”.
Personal initiatives are expected next week from von der Leyen to find a solution to the impasse, with the Eurosocialists insisting that the “arrogance of the EPP to constantly blackmail for majorities on the right, if it disagrees with the rest of the members of the pro-European coalition, it must end”. “EPP and Von der Leyen must finally show their cards openly” stressed a source of the Eurosialists who wished to remain anonymous.
On the other hand, the European rightists stress that the Eurosocialists “they have difficulty digesting the defeat in the European elections and the absolute dominance of the EPP”.
If the next Commission is passed, the centre-right will have 15 of the 27 commissioners, including President von der Leyen. The Eurosocialists, just 4. Meanwhile, the Greens align themselves with the Eurosocialists, while the Liberals take a more neutral stance, accusing the two “big men” of political irresponsibility.
And while the pro-European coalition is unable to come to an agreement in a difficult global situation for Europe and in fear of a trade war with Trump’s USA, international markets remain anxious about European developments. Markets reacted positively to Donald Trump’s return to the White House, but not the same for Europe. “Since November 6, the US markets have risen while the European markets have fallen because they don’t believe that Europe will react” stated in “Vima” o Karel Lanomanaging director of the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), which is ranked among the top ten think tanks worldwide. He added that his Tesla Elon Musk rose by 50% of its value and correspondingly the American banks, in contrast to the European banks which “have fallen in value”.
Lano, who specializes in capital markets, stressed that markets can change their minds very quickly, but the overall valuation levels of the US compared to Europe have a “huge difference”. “We have to do something and for me it’s very simple. We need to have more Europe and less intervention by states that like to interfere in everything” he added, underlining that Europe “he must wake up.”
Trump’s victory finds euro zone engines in political crisis, with Germany heading for snap elections in February and France remaining in prolonged paralysis with its Far Right Marine Le Pen to lurk in the run-up to the presidential election. Referring to Mario Draghi’s much-discussed report-call for strengthening European competitiveness, Lano insisted that solutions exist and are already on the table, but what is needed now are actions. “After what happened in the US, we have no more time for talk, we have to act […] we desperately need to do something” he told “Step”.
Disturbance in Berlin over the Draghi report
The Draghi report called for the EU to continue issuing joint debt – as a follow-up to the Recovery Fund – to finance key investments as long as “the political and institutional conditions are in place”.
The Draghi proposal caused great reactions among the so-called “Frugals” of the North, who oppose the issuance of joint debt. In Berlin, the Italian technocrat was severely criticized by the former German Minister of Finance Christian Lindnerwhose liberal party was recently withdrawn from the governing majority by the German chancellor Olaf Solz due to disagreements over the country’s budget, causing early elections.
“We always find something and postpone decisions […] now we are waiting for the German elections, then we have the presidential elections in Poland, we have no more time” commented Dutch analyst Lano. He underlined that a “big bang” approach is necessary, aiming to strengthen the European single market and putting an end to the constant “exemptions” requested by the member states.
“We have to have a rule that applies to all of Europe, otherwise we will continue to have companies like Klarna (a Swedish payment company that recently filed for an initial public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission) going to the US and Europeans in general invest in the US because they will feel they have better returns compared to Europe” he stated.
