Current two-time Brazilian champions, Palmeiras entered the fight for the cup once and for all and practically doubled their chances of reaching their third title this year, after their hard-earned 2-1 victory against Bahia away from home, in a game in the 34th round this Wednesday ( 20).
With the result, alviverde reached 67 points and reduced the advantage of leader Botafogo to just two, who were left in a goalless draw against Atlético-MG at Arena Independência, in Belo Horizonte, in preview of the Copa Libertadores decision on the day 30 at the Monumental de Núñez, in Buenos Aires.
According to calculations by the Mathematics Department at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), the probability of Palmeiras becoming Brazilian champion in 2024 went from 22.9%, until the 33rd round, to 41.1%, after the leader games and vice-leader for the 34th round.
Botafogo, in turn, saw the chance of winning drop from 70.5% to 53%.
To arrive at the estimates, UFMG mathematicians take into account the history of wins, draws and defeats of each team in the championship. Based on these results, they carry out a series of simulations that indicate which teams are most likely to beat their rivals in the next duels, also considering who is the host of the match.
In the next round, Botafogo will host Vitória (12th place) at Nilton Santos, in a match in which they will not be able to count on striker Luiz Henrique, suspended for expulsion after the final whistle of the game against Atlético-MG, for throwing a bottle towards to stadium security.
Palmeiras will go to Goiás to play with bottom club Atlético-GO. The two matches take place on Saturday (23), at 7:30 pm (Brasília time).
Three days later, on the 26th, Palmeiras and Botafogo have a direct confrontation in the fight for leadership, in a game at Allianz Parque, at 9:30 pm.
The teams thus repeat last year’s dispute, when Botafogo led most of the championship, but dropped in production in the final stretch, being surpassed by Palmeiras in the leaderboard in the 34th round.
“In this final stretch, what counts is winning. We are having a better campaign than last year, but Botafogo is having a brilliant campaign”, said coach Abel Ferreira, after the victory against Bahia, achieved in the last minute with goal by striker Flaco López.
Atlético-GO is the first relegated from the Brazilian Championship 2024, indicates UFMG
At the bottom of the league table, UFMG’s calculations indicate that, after being defeated 2-0 by Athletico-PR in Curitiba, Atlético-GO is the first team relegated from the Brazilian Championship. According to estimates, the probability of the Central-West team falling from 99.98% to 100%.
Although they have 26 points and can still reach 38 if they win the next four matches — against Palmeiras, Vasco, Fortaleza and Bahia —, overtaking Fluminense, first outside the relegation zone with 37, but with one game in hand, the team simulations Mathematicians point out that the possibility of this happening is practically nil.
Penultimate placed, Cuiabá also lost at home to Flamengo 2-1 and saw the chances of relegation rise from 98.5% to 99.83%. In the next round, Cuiabá travels to Caxias do Sul to measure up against Juventude, 15th and with a 42% risk of falling.
Bragantino (18th) and Criciúma (17th), which complete the Z4, also got closer to Series B.
The team from the interior of São Paulo drew 1-1 with São Paulo (6th) in Bragança Paulista and now has a 52.1% chance of playing in the second division in 2025, compared to 45.8% in the previous round. In the next match, Bragantino hosts Cruzeiro (7th).
The Santa Catarina team lost 1-0 to Vitória at Heriberto Hülse, in Criciúma, and saw the probability of relegation jump from 36.3% to 61%. In the next round, Criciúma faces Corinthians, in Santa Catarina.
The black and white team from São Paulo beat Cruzeiro at the Neo Química Arena 2-1 this Wednesday, with goals from Memphis Depay and Yuri Alberto, and practically eliminated any risk of relegation (probability of falling from 0.69% to 0.018%). In 9th in the table, the club is in contention for a place in next year’s Libertadores.
The 34th round of the Brazilian Championship still has two games pending. Vasco (10th) hosts Internacional (5th) in São Januário this Thursday, while Fluminense (16th) plays Fortaleza (3rd) at Maracanã on Friday.
