The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States – with the support of the Republican majority in Congress and the Supreme Court, in addition to the signals with the main nominees for his team – projects challenges for the second half of President Luiz Inácio Lula da’s term. Silva (PT).
Trump’s victory galvanized the Brazilian right and the expectation of extra pressure on the Federal Supreme Court (STF), especially against minister Alexandre de Moraes. The situation that emerges from 2025 also places Brazil in the middle of a new and tense phase of the trade dispute between the USA and China.
The tendency is for the main nominees for the new American administration – billionaire Elon Musk, who led a public clash with Moraes in 2024, and the future leader of foreign policy, Marco Rubio, critic of the STF and Lula – to direct the attention of Trump for the PT member. It is also expected that projects by American parliamentarians to retaliate against actions by the Brazilian judiciary that are harmful to the interests of US citizens and freedom of expression will gain more development in 2025.
Proof of the prospect of escalating tensions is the diplomatic incident caused by the insult fired by the first lady, Rosângela Lula da Silva, at Janja, last weekend against Musk, which achieved international repercussions. On the occasion, she also praised Moraes as the government’s “great partner” in controlling the behavior of political rivals on social media. Janja’s insult to Musk was endorsed by Paulo Teixeira, Minister of Agrarian Development.
The response from the tycoon, owner of digital platforms. According to behind-the-scenes information, the controversy angered Brazilian diplomats. Also not by chance, STF ministers have expressed concern about the advance of the right in the world and in the USA, in particular.
Executive, Judiciary and left in Congress seek to regulate social networks
Former presidents Trump and Bolsonaro are partners, with connections between their family members and political allies, which encourages the Palácio do Planalto and the Judiciary to reevaluate the scenario. One of the joint reactions of STF and Executive ministers noticed in recent weeks concerns the defense of the approval of measures to regulate public posts on digital platforms, something seen by the opposition as a definitive advance in censorship in the country, especially against conservative groups and politicians.
The STF will judge on November 27th actions on rules for social networks and responsibilities for online content, with reports from Dias Toffoli, Luiz Fux and Edson Fachin. The actions analyze provisions of the Marco Civil da Internet, especially article 19, which deals with the responsibility of platforms, currently limited to non-compliance with court orders to remove content.
The cases involve topics such as increasing the responsibility of platforms for content with coup content, hate speech or attacks on democracy, in addition to the possibility of blocking WhatsApp by court decision. The discussion takes place after postponements, while Congress does not move forward on the so-called Fake News Bill. Companies like Meta and Google are directly impacted, and the government defends greater responsibility for platforms, regardless of court decisions.
In yet another example of rapport and constant exchange between Lula and members of the STF, the president met with ministers Alexandre de Moraes and Cristiano Zanin, as well as the director of the Federal Police, Andrei Rodrigues, at Palácio da Alvorada on Wednesday ( 13), shortly after the explosions in Praça dos Três Poderes. The off-the-schedule meeting would serve to discuss security issues, according to Planalto.
Lula and Xi Jinping promise to strengthen relations in trade and investment
The election of Donald Trump encourages President Lula to further strengthen ties with China, led by Xi Jinping. During the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Xi took the opportunity to start a renewed bilateral dialogue, highlighting that Brazil and China should “navigate together” in the face of their common interests, as noted in an article published last Saturday (16), in Folha de São Paulo.
Trump’s victory and the interruption of Joe Biden’s agenda frustrated expected progress in the meeting of the world’s largest economies. Important topics, such as agreements to combat global hunger, the discussion on taxing the super-rich and new environmental goals lost momentum.
The partnership between Brazil and China is expected to gain even more relevance with Xi Jinping’s state visit to Brasília, scheduled for Wednesday (20), shortly after the end of the G20. At the meeting, Lula will receive the Chinese leader at Palácio da Alvorada, where several bilateral agreements will be signed, with emphasis on initiatives in the industrial sector.
In 2023, Brazil recorded an all-time record in exports to China, reaching US$104.3 billion, a value that exceeds the sum of sales to the United States and the European Union. While Trump seeks to strengthen economic relations with Argentina, Xi Jinping sees Brazil as a strategic opportunity to expand South America’s integration into the New Silk Road, through heavy investments in infrastructure. Brazil’s adherence to the Chinese initiative, however, has not been confirmed.
Turnaround in the external scenario encourages defenders of greater partnership in the BRICS
Electoral consultant and scientist Paulo Kramer highlights that Chinese efforts to expand its influence in Brazil and Latin America have occurred in parallel with efforts by Lula’s close collaborators in favor of a greater alliance between the countries of the so-called Global South, formed by the economies emerging markets that want to become less dependent on trade with the US and dollar transactions.
“Figures such as former minister José Dirceu and diplomat Celso Amorim, who acts as informal chancellor, yearn to align Brazil with China, Russia and Iran in their ideological war against the USA and other Western democracies”, he points out. In this way, Trump’s victory would only boost an already existing process of greater consultation between BRICS members.
For political scientist Leonardo Barreto, from Think Policy consultancy, China’s desire to give new impetus to the partnership with Brazil has strong strategic significance. The prospect of new and heavy Trump tariffs on trade, in addition to taking away American political and financial support from multilateral organizations, comes with more pressure on China.
“Anticipating the turnaround that will occur from January 20, 2025, with Trump taking office, the Chinese are already putting their global strategy into practice: signaling that the Asian country is a more predictable and secure partner than the USA and thus rival the Americans for influence,” he said.
For Barreto, considering that Trump is expected to bring many unilateral actions in his “America First”, Xi’s message shows that, as China will try to place itself on a morally superior plane, in favor of global cooperation and shared gains. “These messages, if accompanied by billions in investment, have a lot of appeal”, he highlights.
