that lowers the threshold for the use of the world’s largest arsenal of atomic weapons was announced in September, but the decree formalizing the changes was punctual and, even so, already raised concern.
The approval of the document by President Vladimir Putin, this Tuesday, large-scale ukrainian and followed President Joe Biden’s administration reportedly will remove restrictions on it (the army’s tactical missile system) to attack inside Russian territory.
“I am somewhat surprised for the details and broad scenarios described in the document,” Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), told the North American magazine . “It goes far beyond what we have seen in documents from other nuclear-armed states.
Ukraine had asked for a long time that restrictions on ATACMS be lifted, while the Kremlin had warned that any such measure would be considered as a direct participation of NATO in the warhaving repeatedly called the conflict a proxy war with the alliance.
Document codifying Putin’s latest move to discourage kyiv supporters from providing military support comes after criticizing US aid and insist that he can end the war.
“It is evident that this is a Russian retaliation. At this moment it is purely symbolicbut that doesn’t mean the Russians aren’t contemplating more concrete forms of retaliation,” he told Newsweek Mark Episkopos, researcher in the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute.
Among the update’s 26 paragraphs are four key changes from its previous June 2020 version:
Includes Belarus
Aggression has been added to the updated doctrine against other members of the State of the Unionwhere previously only aggression against Russia was mentioned.
The leader of Belarus, is Putin’s closest ally in Europe and has allowed his country to host Russian nuclear warheads that They are still controlled by Moscow and whose location near Ukraine has raised alarm.
Lukashenko referenced the expansion of Russia’s nuclear doctrine in September, saying that “an attack on Belarus will trigger a third world war“.
Umbral inferior
Russia had previously warned of a nuclear response if “the very existence of the State is threatened”although many have argued about what this means.
The revised guidelines now refer to “a critical threat” to the “sovereignty“as well as”integrity territorial” of Russia and Belarus.
Paragraph 10 says that Russia will consider aggression by any state of a bloc or alliance as aggression against this coalition “as a whole.” Paragraph 11 says that aggression against Russia “and/or its allies by any non-nuclear State with the participation or support of a nuclear State will be considered a joint attack.”
When Putin described the changes in September, he did not mention any country by name, but the context was clear: Ukraine is a non-nuclear state that receives military support from the United States and other nuclear-armed countries.
“The problem for the Kremlin, of course, is whether the threat of nuclear retaliation against Ukraine for attacking targets inside Russia with Western conventional weapons is a credible threat“Kristensen said.
“The West would have to believe that Putin would actually order the use of nuclear weapons in retaliation by a very limited conventional attack that in no way threatens Russia’s survival or its ability to operate its nuclear forces,” he said.
“Putin should be willing to risk possible consequences for Russia that far exceed any damage that a Ukrainian conventional attack could cause.
Expanded list of military dangers
The new doctrine has increased the list of what Russia considers military dangers that could require a nuclear response. This includes the possession of any type of weapon of mass destruction that can be used against Russia, military exercises near Russia’s borders, as well as attempts to attack environmentally dangerous facilities or isolate part of Russia’s territory.
“Russia’s willingness to climb the nuclear ladder It is largely due to the mindset and predilections of one man, Vladimir Putin.” Episkopos said. “Of course, there is a lot we don’t know about how Vladimir Putin views the course of this war and his own personal red lines.”
Not just deterrence
The updated doctrine no longer says that Russia considers nuclear weapons “only” as a means of deterrence, adding that Moscow can use nuclear weapons against “potential” enemies.
He also says that nuclear deterrence would be a response to States providing territory, airspace, maritime space and resources under its control “to prepare and implement aggression against the Russian Federation”.
Although the approval of the nuclear doctrine coincided with the Biden administration’s green light for the use of ATACMS in Russia, the US National Security Council said that saw no reason to adjust its nuclear posture.
“Russia perceives that this is a measure by the Biden administration to tie Trump’s hands when he takes office“said Episkopos of the Quincy Institute. “Therefore, the Russians have every incentive not to respond with forcefulness to this ATACMS decision.
Meanwhile, Kristensen said the decree and document were “for public consumption and propaganda that does not necessarily tell us much about how or to what extent Russian nuclear planning would actually change as a result.“.
