Regardless of the nature of the projectile, several experts raised the possibility that it was an “RS-26 Rubezh”, whose development had been halted in 2018.
The launch of a Russian ballistic missile over Ukraine, designed to carry nuclear warheads, provoked strong international reactions this Thursday, with experts highlighting a strategic message sent by Russia, which claims to have tested a new projectile.
Ukraine first mentioned “an intercontinental ballistic missile” without a nuclear warhead, statements that were later corrected by a senior US official, who then described an “experimental medium-range” missile.
Russian President Vladimir Putin assumed, at the end of the day, responsibility for firing a new medium-range missile. “Our engineers called it ‘Orechnik’.”
As its name suggests, an intercontinental missile can reach one continent from another. Technically, according to international treaties, this means it has a range of more than 5,500 kilometers.
An intermediate range missile has a range of 3,000 to 5,500. The term “ballistic” designates a self-propelled and guided projectile, whose trajectory depends on gravity and its speed.
In this type of range, this trajectory theoretically passes through space. Russia and the United States developed the first ones in the late 1950s to carry nuclear payloads.
But, in this case, the missile used by Moscow did not carry a nuclear payload or, according to experts, had no payload at all. And it probably didn’t leave the atmosphere, given such a short distance.
“The interesting thing is the inconsistency between the missile’s probable range and the distance from the target”, Héloïse Fayet, from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), explained to France-Presse (AFP).
Regardless of the nature of the projectile, several experts raised the possibility that it was an “RS-26 Rubezh”, whose development had been halted in 2018.
Vladimir Putin has assured that this is not the case but Fabian Hoffmann, from the University of Oslo, remains cautious.
“We still don’t know what it is. I would be surprised if Russia managed to manufacture (a device of this type) without depending on at least 90% of existing projects and without cannibalizing parts from the RS-26 (or another missile)”, he stressed, via the network social
Nick Brown, from the private British intelligence company Janes, highlighted to AFP, in turn, that the abandonment of the development of the RS-26 “was never officially confirmed and that it could have continued below the radar”.
Even if that means giving it a new name, a common method in the world of the weapons industry as soon as a new development emerges.
This attack provoked strong reactions from Western diplomats, in a dangerous context of escalation around the war in Ukraine.
The Kremlin, which has shown the nuclear red flag on several occasions since the start of the conflict in February 2022, estimated on Tuesday that expanding the possibilities for using the atomic bomb was necessary, given what Vladimir Putin considers to be ” threats” from the West.
On the thousandth day of war, Moscow published a new nuclear doctrine, a direct response to Ukraine’s recent attack on its territory with North American ATACMS missiles, which Washington officially authorized on Sunday.
Russia itself is accused of escalation, having, according to Kiev and the West, now the support of at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers.
Experts remain unanimous on one point: this is indeed a Russian political message to the West and Kiev.
“We are facing something unprecedented and it is much more of a political act than a military one. The cost-benefit ratio of the attack is zero”, highlighted Héloïse Fayet.
For Nick Brown, the Kremlin intended to “send a message or warning of escalation, a costly and potentially dangerous way for Russia to try to impress” the West.
