Children line up during the delivery of school supplies in the Waddi neighborhood of Mosul, Iraq
The last census in the Arab country took place under Saddam Hussein. Since then, fears about the political balance based on ethno-religious distribution have held back initiatives in this direction.
For the past two days, all of Iraq has been under curfew: the borders have remained open, but between 43 million and 46 million ordinary citizens were told not to go to work or school.
The restrictions relating to this Wednesday and Thursday have nothing to do with other ongoing conflicts in the Middle East: for the first time in almost four decades, an complete census to assess not only the number of inhabitants, but also what they do and how they live.
Armed with electronic tablets, between 120,000 and 140,000 specially trained census takers will present more than 70 questions. Iraqi authorities promised preliminary data within 24 hours and full results within two months.
Explosive situation across the country
While politicians argue that the census is essential for national development, there are doubts about the political sensitivities and even the potential danger of this “head count”, which will influence aspects of Iraqi society, from infrastructure to health and education.
“The situation is explosive across the country”says Adel Bakawan, director of the Iraq Research Center, based in Paris. This “because none of the central issues between the different components of Iraqi society – Shiite and Sunni Muslims, Kurds – have been resolved.”
For the Shia majority, the census is a “national imperative”, while Sunnis “view it as a mechanism of Shiite domination over the country“, and for the Kurds it is “a weapon used by the central government against them”, explains Bakawan.
The last nationwide census took place in 1987; that of 1997, under Saddam Hussein, excluded the Kurdish regions. In 2003, after the invasion by the United States, the dictator was overthrown, and a new count scheduled for 2007 was successively postponed, due to fears of national destabilization.
During a new attempt in 2009, several census takers were killed by snipers in Mosul.
In the neighbor Lebanonwhere the ethnic situation is similar, there have been no censuses for over 90 years, due to similar social fears.
Disputed territories and ghost employees
But there are other reasons for the delay in carrying out a new census. Since 2003, Iraq’s political system has been based on a quota scheme established by North American administrators, to avoid conflicts for power. The prime minister is always Shiite, the leader of parliament Sunni, and the president Kurdish, ensuring that key demographic groups are politically represented.
A census that provides a current and more accurate picture of Iraqi communities could disrupt this balance. Bakawan predicts that it will be necessary to increase the number of seats in parliament, from 329 to around 450, as the law provides for one representative for every 100,000 inhabitants.
Furthermore, Iraqis tend to vote within their own ethno-religious community: “Thus, given that the birth rate among Kurds is 1.9, and among Shiites, 4.99, they should further reaffirm their demographic dominance.”
However, any change in the balance of power in parliament and local chambers could generate new tensions between different groups. Another controversial aspect of a census in Iraq is the so-called “disputed territories”which the Kurds consider part of their semi-autonomous region in the north, but which the government claims belongs to the federation.
The 2005 national Constitution establishes that the solution to this impasse must include a census, showing who actually lives in the areas in question. However, the count could result in answers that please neither the Kurds nor the Arabs.
As oil revenue are another problematic factor: in 2023, they resulted in a monthly average of around 8 billion dollars (around 7.4 billion euros). The amount should be distributed equally among the provinces, with the less populous provinces receiving less state funding.
Os “ghost employees” are yet another problem that the census can address: allegedly, tens of thousands of Iraqis hold down multiple jobs at the same time, including with the federal government, bribing their bosses with part of their salary to keep their jobs without having to show up for work.
“They’re not just numbers: they’re narratives”
Baghdad tried to overcome these and other problems by removing questions about ethnicity or religion from the form. In the opinion of the director for the Middle East and North Africa of think tank Crisis Group, Joost Hiltermann, this reduces the dangerous potential of the initiative.
“Standard censuses around the world do not include the question of ethnicity, as this tends to generate politically volatile questions about the relative size of ethnic groups.” Thus, the Iraqi authorities’ decision to remove the item makes the census “much less delicate” from a political point of view.
Regarding concerns about “disputed territories”, the federal government agreed to take the 1957 census, prior to Hussein’s dictatorship, as a basis for measuring the Kurdish population in sensitive locations such as Kirkuk. However, there are those who criticize these resolutions as political tactics that will reduce the meaning of the count.
“It’s not just numbers, it’s demographic ‘narratives’”local political analyst Yahya al-Kubaisi argued in May in an editorial article for the newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi. “These were transformed into data that produces policy measuresthese numbers are reflected in everything”, so these categories should not be ignored.
Despite everything, Crisis Group’s Hiltermann believes that the overall impact will be positive: “The census provides vital information about Iraqi society as it evolves, especially after such a long gap. It is essential for development. There may or may not be corruption, but with accurate and up-to-date information, at least a reality-based development strategy can be launched.”
The expert emphasizes the advantage of excluding data relating to the volume of different groups: “Iraqis must be, above all, citizens, and be treated as such by the government strategy. Dividing society into ethnic groups, as happened in Lebanon and Iraq, only increases the risk of violent conflict.”
