The answer to the question, until now, had always been no, that Iran has never developed nuclear weapons nor will it because, in the words of the Iranian supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khameneipronounced two decades ago, doing so goes against the precepts of the islam. Iran is a Islamic Republica theocracy in which the head of state is also the religious leader.
But now—today—is different from yesterday 20 years ago. Iran, increasingly cornered in Near East for the military advances of Israel in Palestine and the Lebanon against the two great allied militias of Tehran, Hezbollah y Hamasseems more willing than ever to change her mind regarding the atomic bomb.
The victory of the Republican Donald Trump in the US elections does not help: the power circles in Tehran fear that the billionaire will return to a policy of “maximum pressure” against the Persian country.
“Statements by senior officials about the possibility of Iran militarizing its nuclear program are becoming more direct and frequent,” he explains. Hamideza SaintIranian academic and member of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “The debate about the need for nuclear deterrence has become routine in the Iranian media. And this is a clear indication of the change in official discourse in Iran, taking into account how tight the government control of all media“Azizi continues.
“The terrorist enemy”
The debate in Iran over its nuclear program and the atomic bomb is, of course, not new, but has been going on for decades. But the voices became more insistent after 2018when then-US President Donald Trump broke the nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obamawhich led to Iran’s commitment to use its nuclear program only for peaceful purposes.
When Trump broke the pact, however, everything changed. Iran began its program of uranium enrichmentnecessary for the development of the bomb. Tehran currently possesses highly enriched uranium. 60%; a very short step in time to achieve the 90% necessary to assemble an atomic bomb. Iran, now, is on the verge of becoming a nuclear poweras are the USA, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. Israel, despite never openly admitting it, also has nuclear weapons.
“He holy quran It orders us to increase our power to the maximum to frighten our enemies and thus create an armed deterrent force. The Iranian nation must possess any weapons that our terrorist enemies, USA and Israel, also possess,” the Iranian parliamentarian said this week Mahmud Nabavianin a clear reference, although without naming it, to the nuclear weapon.
“The war in Gazawhich is no longer limited only to the Strip, is the main driver of the change in discourse in Iran regarding its nuclear program. In the past, Iran’s military deterrence capability was defined by its doctrine of ‘advanced defense’: the presence and reinforcement of regional militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza,” says Azizi.
Following the Israeli attacks on their leadership and structure, these two groups have now been severely damaged and weakened. “There is a growing perception in Tehran that establishing a nuclear tie —developing the bomb— is the only possible way to establish real deterrence [contra el enemigo]”, continues the expert.
Risks and preventive attacks
Crossing the threshold and becoming a nuclear power, however, has its risks. “The extensive inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) —whose director, Rafael Grossiwas in Tehran last week—, added to the penetration of Israeli intelligence services in Iran suggest that any attempt to develop a nuclear weapon would likely be detected immediately. In that case, both Israel and, possibly, the United States could take preventive measures“, considers Azizi.
This attack, in fact, has supposedly already occurred. “It’s no secret. There is a specific component of its nuclear program, which was our target in the attack,” said this Monday the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahuabout the Israeli bombing on October 26 against three Iranian military bases that caused the death of four persian soldiers. Netanyahu did not provide further details on which specific components of Iran’s nuclear program were attacked.
“In this context, the re-election of Donald Trump is likely to increase regional tensions, and may serve to accelerate Iran’s progress towards the manufacture of nuclear weapons,” explains Azizi. “Trump’s strong support for Israel, particularly the Government of [Binyamín] Netanyahu could embolden Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. An action of this type could be, in turn, the final catalyst that solidifies Tehran’s determination to develop a nuclear weapon.
