Olive oil price will fall by half in the coming months, predicts the world’s largest producer

Deoleo anticipates a big drop in olive oil prices over the next three months with the arrival of the new harvest on the market.

The olive oil industry is poised for significant price reductions, with global prices rising drop by half from its historic highs in the coming months, according to Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil producer. This optimistic forecast follows a challenging period marked by weather-related droughts, inflation and high interest rates, which have driven prices to historic highs.

At the beginning of 2023, the EU recorded a 50% annual increase in olive oil priceswhile the UK has seen a staggering 150% increase since the end of 2021. In Spain, which accounts for almost half of the world’s olive oil production, two consecutive years of drought that have severely limited olive harvests have sent global prices soaring .

Deoleo, the producer of well-known brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, predicts a recovery in production for the 2024-2025 season. In an interview with , Miguel Ángel Guzmán, sales director at Deoleo, predicted that the market would begin to stabilize as the new harvest progressed and supply increased. However, Guzmán noted persistent problems in the premium olive oil categories, particularly Extra Virgin.

“The flexibility of prices at origin should begin between November, December and Januaryas long as weather and harvest conditions remain stable in the coming weeks”, anticipates Guzmán.

Deoleo projects that market normalization will develop gradually during the first half of 2025, driven by greater production availability and reduced consumer demand following years of high prices.

Speaking to Euronews, Deoleo emphasized that price drops vary according to region, influenced by factors such as stock levels, market competition and the overall share of olive oil in the edible olive oil market. The 2025-2026 harvest will also play a critical role in determining long-term price trends.

Meanwhile, the Mediterranean region is experiencing mixed prospects. Greece is battling a prolonged drought, compromising its harvests. In contrast, Turkey, now the world’s second-largest olive oil producer, is on track for a record production of 475,000 tons.