The Brazilian Championship is heading towards the final stretch, and Fluminense is fighting in the second half of the table, still at risk of falling into Series B.
This Friday (23/11), in a game at Maracanã, valid for the 34th round of the Brasileirão.
Tricolor is in 15th position, with 38 points gained.
O brings the necessary score so that the team does not fall to the second division of the Brasileirão.
What is the score to not fall in the Brazilian Championship?
According to the mathematics and statistics department at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), with 48 points it is impossible for a club to fall to Series B. With 47 points, the chance is only 0.005%. With 46, the chance is 0.081. With 45 points, it remains below 1%: 0.786%. 44 points become a little more dangerous: 4,585%. And 43 points already represent a 16.96% risk of falling, while with 42 points the risk is 41.410%.
Considering the salvation scenario with 48 points, Fluminense, which has 38, would need 10 more in four games to get 100% out of the risk of relegation. To reach 45, with a chance of a drop of less than 1%, they would need seven more points – two wins and a draw in four games.
MORE: where to watch Saturday’s games on TV
In the Brazilian Championship for consecutive points, the historical average for a team to save itself is 43 points, although in some years the number has been higher: in 2007, for example, Corinthians was relegated with 44 points, as was Figueirense in 2008.
In 2009, Coritiba fell with 45 points, the highest number in the history of running points. On the other hand, in 2019, with 37 points a team would already escape the drop, as Cruzeiro fell with 36 points.
To reach 43 points, Fluminense would need six more points in five games – two wins.
The team that is currently opening the Z4 is Athletico-PR, with 34 points and 31 games, two games less than Fluminense.
MORE: see how the Brasileirão artillery is doing
What are Fluminense’s games in the Brasileirão until the end of the competition?
- Fluminense x Criciúma – 11/26 (Tuesday) – 7pm (Brasília time)
- Athletico-PR x Fluminense – 12/01 (Sunday) – 6:30 pm (Brasília time)
- Fluminense x Cuiabá – 12/04 (Wednesday) – time to be confirmed
- Palmeiras x Fluminense – 12/08 (Sunday) – time to be confirmed
