What will be his next steps, wonders the planet in Ukraine. During it, the Russian president lowered the conditions for a Russian nuclear strike, the US and the UK crossed (yet another) Moscow “red line” allowing Kiev inside Russian territory, and Russia struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, capable of bringing nuclear warheads.
Subsequently, in his speech, President Putin warned Western countries of retaliation, in the event that Russian military facilities are hit with their weapons. What is going to happen? Will he choose further escalation, with uncontrollable consequences?
“I estimate that the Russian Federation will not escalate. Nor will it launch a missile attack against France or the United Kingdom,” Antonis Kamaras, ELIAMEP research associate specializing in Defense issues, answers Vima. At the same time, he foresees a consolidation of the current situation and an end to hostilities through the divided model of Cyprus or North and South Korea.
Why did the Russian president, Mr. Kamara, choose to respond with the Oresnik ballistic missile to the US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missile attacks?
“Obviously, it is extremely useful to the Russian president that Russia is a nuclear power. Hence the aid that Ukraine receives so far is very cautious. A hypersonic ballistic missile is a bargaining chip for him.”
How do you interpret Putin’s speech? Planning to scale up?
“Hybrid attacks by the Russian military intelligence agency (GRU) are already taking place in Europe at the moment, which pose the risk of loss of people and animals. And while we have to take it for granted that the relevant, particularly intense, activity of the agency will be escalated, I do not believe that the Russian Federation will escalate the tension in the military field and launch a missile attack against France or the United Kingdom. The new US president wants, according to his statement, to agree with Putin to end the war. It is therefore not in the interest of the Russian president to “burn” this way out”.
Will the escalation by the Biden administration create a fait accompli in the run-up to Trump’s takeover?
“No. A world war is already raging. When suddenly North Korea sends personnel and equipment and Ukraine has support from other countries then, indeed, we are talking about a war conflict worldwide, which has mobilized resources, forces and means intercontinentally from North America to Asia. On the other hand, it is known that once the current situation is consolidated, we are now headed to the North and South Korea or Cyprus model of division. Putin keeps 20% of the Ukrainian territories he has conquered, a situation is stabilized and hostilities stop. This is the deal on the table. It will be a question whether Putin really believes that he can advance in Kiev, in Kharkiv… Because the other side is not willing to suffer such a defeat. She is willing to agree with him based on the existing balances. He will not tolerate the total defeat of Ukraine.”
Will there be complications if the ‘division model’ is promoted?
“Nothing will happen. So far, Russia has shown Europe and the world how it perceives its security. On the other hand, however, the EU has also proven that if 80% of Ukraine is free, sovereign, tomorrow it can join the European Union and prosper.”
How will Ukraine’s accession to NATO develop?
“My personal judgment is that it won’t happen. Putin has achieved this. Germany does not seem to consent to the accession either. Prospectively, the strategy in the next 5-10 years will be the re-normalization of Euro-Russian relations and the lifting of the embargo. Nobody in Europe wants to turn their back on Russia forever – that would mean Ukraine joining NATO. However, Ukraine can become a member of the EU.”
