“Agreeing to use long-range missiles to attack targets in Russia will not change the fate of the war. But thanks to them, President Zelenskyi will come to the negotiating table with a good card. Without them, all the aces would be in Putin’s hands,” he told .
The former rector of the Academy of National Defense in Warsaw states that the thousand days since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine is also an examination of the capabilities of Western democratic countries and NATO.
“It is sad to say that these thousand days did not bring the result we expected. Today’s picture of the war on the Ukrainian side looks dramatic. It must be said loudly: at this stage, Ukraine is losing this war. I am talking about the military part, not the political and international part. However, the average Ukrainian dreams of only one thing today – that this war ends somehow,” he continued.
A few days ago, US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine permission to use US weapons to attack targets on Russian territory. And this help from the White House came at a dramatic moment, according to the general.
The situation after the war
What will the end of the war mean for Ukraine? “Ukraine is no longer a winner,” says a Polish general who was formerly the head of a group of NATO advisers on the reform of Ukrainian military education.
“The goals she expected in the event of peace are now very difficult to achieve. Kicking the Russians out of Ukraine, reclaiming Crimea, quickly joining NATO and the European Union – I think Ukrainians realize that no matter what President Zelensky says, it’s impossible in the short term,” he said.
This would leave 80 percent of Ukrainian territory, which could eventually become part of NATO and the EU. “And that could be described as a victory for Ukraine. Time is of the essence. I’m worried about these 20 years that are being talked about in the United States today,” he noted.
According to the American media, the plan of the future American president Donald Trump is to end the war by introducing a demilitarized zone and 20 years of neutrality for Ukraine.
“Trump’s camp plans to block Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO for 20 years. Putin makes it clear that his priority is to banish all Ukrainian dreams of the West. The most important thing is that the North Atlantic Alliance does not approach the borders of the Russian Federation. The fight will be whether Ukraine will be part of the family of Western countries. And if that doesn’t happen, Ukrainians will consider it a big loss,” he thinks.
He adds that after the experience of Afghanistan, Russian President Putin does not plan to dominate and pacify the whole of Ukraine, because he is not able to achieve that, according to him.
“However, he will strive for a coup. He succeeded earlier in Georgia. He almost succeeded in Moldova. Another difficult period awaits Ukraine, even after the war,” says Pacek.
“Good things” for Ukraine
Pacek claims that the decision to use long-range ATACMS missiles could have been made at least a few months ago.
“Then, in my opinion, it would bring the proper results that President Zelensky needs. Today, help is delayed. The chance to turn the tide of the war in favor of Ukraine has passed. A delay in this matter means that Ukraine simply cannot handle it anymore,” he thinks.
“After all, it means good things, even if risky. Equipped with ATACMS missiles and possibly Storm Shadow missiles from France and Great Britain, which are also long-range missiles, Ukraine can finally try to effectively stop the scale of Russian aggression. Ukraine needs overall success on the front. Not to win in the Donetsk or Kursk regions of Russia, but to finally stop the Russians. It must demonstrate that it is capable of this, because the Russian advantage at this stage of the war is very visible,” he stated.
He recalled that ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) missiles are tactical ballistic missiles launched, among other things, from HIMARS launchers. They are four meters long, weigh over 1,600 kilograms and can attack targets within a radius of about 300 kilometers.
Using rockets
Thanks to their use, according to the Polish expert, the Ukrainians will be able to move military operations to Russia – which will force the aggressor to solve internal problems when problems with military logistics arise after successful Ukrainian attacks. According to Pacek, however, this will not dramatically change the fate of the war.
“But if the Ukrainians get the appropriate number of missiles without American consent, a lot can still happen on the front. If there are enough of these missiles and they destroy important targets in Russia, then, just like in the Kursk region, it will quickly become clear that Moscow will not cope with this war so easily. Of course, Russia is a big country with huge potential and money. It has a large resource base: oil, gas, coal, all of which fuel Putin’s economic potential. Ukraine has absolutely no chance in this regard. But depending on the number of ATACMS missiles received from the Americans, the final outcome of this war may be delayed. This can lead to a stalemate in which no one will quickly feel like a winner and you will have to take a seat at the table. Both will have their bargaining chips,” he says.
“Moving the four regions and Crimea under the full jurisdiction of Russia and additionally freezing Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years, as Trump wants, will largely simply fulfill Putin’s expectations,” Pacek added.
