The growing tensions that are occurring globally as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine remember the years before World War II and they are increasingly worrying experts. Valery Zaluzhnyiformer commander of the Ukrainian army and current ambassador to London, recently warned that “World War III will begin in 2024”.
Zaluzhnyi considers that the involvement of North Korean troops In the Ukraine conflict, use of North Korean and Iranian weapons by Russia and the increasingly open support from Chinathey point to a worrying escalation.
Memories of World War I
While Zaluzhnyi’s prediction is alarming, does not believe that current conditions still constitute a world war. During the Cold War, conflicts such as Korea and Vietnam involved multiple international actors without being classified as world wars.
However, he acknowledges that similarities with the 1930s, when separate conflicts coalesced into a global confrontation, raise concerns. In this sense, he points out that Some tactics used by Russian troops in Ukraine refer both to the First World War and to futuristic forms of combat.in a wear conflict where small advances are considered big victories.
“Most land warfare takes place in a long front, where an advance of even a few hundred meters could be considered a great victory. This war of attrition was fought on the Western Front of the First World War,” he says.
Nuclear danger and uncertain peace
Last week, Russia launched a missile designed to carry nuclear warheads as a clear warning to the Westparticularly the United States, the United Kingdom and France, which have authorized Ukraine to use Western missiles against Russia. Although Ukraine has received advanced weapons with significant range, they have failed to stop Russian attacks or decisively tip the balance on the fronts.
Despite this intensification of fighting and tensions, the expectation of peace negotiationsespecially with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House in January, since he assured during his election campaign that he would seek a quick deal to stop the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears open to considering proposals, but these could involve significant concessions.
Zelensky has recently acknowledged that the recovery of Crimea by force would have an unacceptable human costsuggesting that the only way for his return would be diplomatic. Instead, Crimea is only part of the territory occupied by Russia, and there are no signs that Vladimir Putin is willing to give up more land.
Trump’s possible plan could freeze current front lineswhich would de facto allow Russia to consolidate its territorial gains, although kyiv and the West do not formally recognize it. This type of agreement could also include restrictions on Ukraine’s accession to NATO and his rearmament by the West, conditions that would benefit Russia strategically.
“If realized, the end result would be such that Russia’s current and future leaders would hardly lose the impulse to use violence as a foreign policy tool.. Other states could follow suit. Maybe there wouldn’t be a world war, but infinitely bigger and smaller wars. The 21st century would not differ much from previous centuries,” reflects Varjus.
