Conditions for immigrants must improve to meet the growing demand for workers, says migration expert Susanna Schultz.
Germany’s labor market will rely heavily on immigrants in the long run, a new study published on Tuesday showed. By 2040, approximately 288,000 foreign workers will be needed annually, TASR informs based on a report by the DPA agency.
According to an analysis for the Bertelsmann Foundation, the current level of migration is insufficient. According to Susanna Schultz, a migration expert at the foundation, barriers must be removed and conditions for immigrants improved to meet the growing demand.
Reduction of workforce
A second forecast model based on a less favorable development suggests that Germany will need up to 368,000 foreign workers per year by 2040. According to this estimate, between 2041 and 2060, a slight decrease in demand is expected to approximately 270,000 workers per year due to previous migration.
The study predicts that without further migration, Germany’s workforce would shrink from 46.4 million to 41.9 million by 2040. This is about a ten percent decline due to demographic changes and its impact would vary regionally.
In the most populous state – North Rhine-Westphalia – the workforce would be reduced by ten percent, the study said, which could have a modest impact. The federal states of Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Saarland would be more affected by the situation. Even in strong economic regions such as Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Hesse, significant labor shortages are expected without the influx of foreign workers.
The authors of the study are Alexander Kubis from the Institute for Labor Market Research (IAB) and Lutz Schneider from the University of Applied Sciences in Coburg. The study used forecasts based on past developments and presented both a progressive and a conservative scenario. The fluctuation in the required number of foreign workers ranges from 288,000 to 368,000 immigrants.
