Next summer, the United States will host an event that could define the legacy of FIFA (International Football Federation) president Gianni Infantino.
The Club World Cup, featuring 32 teams from leagues around the world, is Infantino’s flagship innovation, a competition to which he is so attached that his name appears on the newly created championship trophy not once but twice.
The tournament will take place in June and July in stadiums across the United States and is an attempt to realize Infantino’s oft-quoted phrase about making football “truly global.” It is his ambition to create a quadrennial club tournament that will become a major sporting event and will endure long after he leaves office.
But despite Infantino’s high hopes, there is no guarantee the tournament will be a success. Obstacles and route errors have marred the path to the first game, and enormous uncertainty about its financing persists, even with the draw for the event scheduled to take place in Miami on December 5th.
In Europe, leagues and the global players’ union have filed lawsuits over what they say are unilateral moves by Infantino and FIFA to add more events to an already congested global calendar that puts players’ health at risk. Fans have also expressed displeasure with the fact that, in an effort to generate interest, FIFA appears to have found a way to guarantee a place for Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami team, eliminated from the MLS playoffs in the opening round. This happened despite Infantino’s insistence that the tournament would be the most meritocratic in the world. But some of the biggest concerns remain around the event’s business model.
With less than a year to go until the tournament, FIFA, which has kept its revenue projections close to its chest, has begun sharing some of the details with a wider circle of officials and some of the 32 participating teams. This includes some of Europe’s biggest, such as Real Madrid, who demanded significant eight-figure fees, in addition to prize money, to participate.
FIFA must balance the needs and demands of these top European teams with competitors from lesser-known football regions such as the Middle East and Africa, ensuring that payments reflect both the teams’ status and its promise that the tournament is meritocratic and truly global. Around 10% of the tournament’s revenue must be used for so-called solidarity payments, for FIFA members and non-participating clubs.
The cost pressure of clubs’ prize money demands is separate from the amount of money needed to stage a month-long world-class event in the United States, which FIFA initially estimated at US$1.2 billion. ).
In the most recent updates, officials said they had budgeted cost savings that would reduce spending to between US$1 billion (R$5.8 billion) and US$800 million (R$4.6 billion), leaving a projection of at least $1 billion in net revenue, money that could be used to pay participating clubs.
This profit assumes FIFA achieves commercial targets that defy the expectations of most analysts and industry experts. The entity told stakeholders that the Club World Cup will generate US$800 million in media rights and between US$1 billion and US$1.2 billion in sales from partnerships and sponsorships, up to four times estimates.
However, several experts who have worked with FIFA or purchased rights from the organization estimated that the entire competition, including commercial and broadcasting rights, was worth more in the range of US$500 million (R$2.9 billion) to US$ 700 million (R$4 billion).
“There is a lack of confidence in the market regarding the tournament,” said Simon Thomas, a former FIFA commercial director hired by Infantino. “For a long time, sponsors and broadcasters didn’t believe in the tournament — they were skeptical it would happen. Maybe with more time, a marketing plan and visible commitments from the clubs, they would have embarked sooner. But there was no such communication. Which makes it difficult sell it in a short time now.”
FIFA was forced to launch a late bid to sell media rights this year after plans for Apple to broadcast the tournament globally fell through because the American technology company did not agree with Infantino’s assessment.
“Market interest is very strong,” FIFA said in a statement, adding that it expected its sponsorship program for the tournament to be “completely exhausted.” It did not comment on media rights sales or its forecasts.
FIFA said club executives “have been extremely supportive of the tournament and its competitive nature.” This characterization appears to be at odds with comments from some of the sport’s biggest names. Last weekend, Real Madrid president Florentino Pérez complained about the risk of injury to his already overworked players.
“The lack of rest affects players’ careers,” he said, a few hours before star Vinicius Junior injured his hamstring. “FIFA created a Club World Cup that will deprive players of their usual rest.”
The pressure is now on Infantino to make the tournament a success.
“If these numbers are not right, there will be a significant backlash,” said Chris Lencheski, founder of SKI Partners, a sports and media consulting firm, and an adjunct professor at Columbia University.
Perhaps enough, he said, “to upend careers.”
