The interim leader of the government in the Senate, Otto Alencar (PSD-BA), states that the government’s stuck spending cut package should be presented to Congress leaders at the meeting on Thursday (28), and not this Wednesday (26) as if ventilated that could occur.
The expectation is that the Minister (Finance) will speak directly with them, at the leaders’ meeting that normally takes place on Thursday mornings. There is also the expectation that the president (PT) will speak directly to the presidents of the Chamber and Senate about the package.
“It’s not closed yet, but that’s the forecast. [A reunião] It shouldn’t happen tomorrow [quarta]. It should be at the leaders’ meeting, which takes place on Thursday morning,” he said in an interview with the newspaper The Globebut without giving details of the package contents.
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Despite the possibility of Haddad presenting the package this Thursday (28), Alencar says that the expectation is that the proposal will only be until next year, due to Congress’ tight agenda at the end of the year.
“There are a lot of projects to vote on, and it should only take two weeks, until the 19th. There is Tax Reform, LDO, Budget. So the package should last until 2025”, said Alencar.
Among the planned measures are changes to the criteria for adjusting the minimum wage, which may have a limited real gain between 0.6% and 2.5%, following the growth range of expenses in the fiscal framework.
Also under analysis is the reduction of the criteria for access to the salary bonus (PIS/Pasep) for those who receive up to 1.5 minimum wages, in addition to stricter rules for granting the Continuous Payment Benefit (BPC) and a new minimum age of 55 years for military retirement. The expected savings are R$25 to R$30 billion in 2025 and up to R$40 billion in 2026, according to government interlocutors.
On the other hand, there are still political and technical obstacles. Congress awaits the decision of Minister Flávio Dino, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), on the release of parliamentary amendments, suspended since August. The government leader in Congress, Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), criticized the dependence on the STF decision.
“Waiting to see if the legislation is to his liking or not [Dino] leaves Congress in a very fragile position”, he said.
Meanwhile, behind-the-scenes information gathered by O Globo and Folha de S. Paulo indicates that Haddad is considering making a statement on national television to present the tax package to the population. The strategy seeks to mitigate the impact of unpopular measures, such as changes to the minimum wage and the BPC. According to sources, the intention is to explain the adjustments as necessary to contain the increase in expenses and ensure fiscal balance.
On the other hand, . It should be closed this Wednesday (27) and will have measures such as cuts in “tax privileges”, limitation of super salaries, the end of constitutional floors for health and education, and the decoupling of the minimum wage from the Continuous Payment Benefit (BPC) and of Social Security.
In addition to these cuts, the PEC proposes limiting parliamentary amendments to the discretionary budget, decoupling them from net current revenue. As an incentive, deputies suggest that the more Congress reduces mandatory expenses, the greater the space for discretionary spending.
“What we know so far, of what the government is proposing, is a very timid measure, which does not actually meet the need for structural reform that we have in our country,” said Kataguiri in an interview with Estadão.
According to calculations by the Chamber’s Budget Consultancy, this PEC could generate savings of R$1 trillion in 10 years, in addition to reducing interest rates and inflation, cutting mandatory expenses and expanding public investments.
