In the fiscal adjustment package detailed by the federal government this Thursday (28), the change in the rule for increasing the minimum wage is responsible for a third of the expected savings.
The Ministry of Finance estimates cutting R$110 billion by 2030 with the measure, out of a total savings from the package projected at R$327 billion. Under the new rule, the minimum wage must have a real gain within the framework. In other words, it will not be able to advance beyond 2.5% added to the variation in inflation.
The policy of real appreciation of the minimum wage resumed by the Lula government predicted that the salary would have gained equivalent to the percentage of growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of two previous years added to the variation in inflation.
In 2025, for example, the minimum wage should increase by 2.9% (GDP growth in 2023) added to the inflation correction. With the rule, the gain would be limited to 2.5% in real terms. According to the Ministry of Finance, this change, next year, will result in savings of R$2.2 billion.
It turns out that the minimum wage is a correction parameter for a series of social benefits, such as the Continuous Payment Benefit (BPC), unemployment insurance and the salary bonus. With the change in the rule, there would be a containment of these items.
Economists positively evaluated the measure, which they consider to be of a structural nature for the balance of public accounts.
The financial market’s questioning concerns the policy’s potential to reach the figures projected by the Ministry of Finance. See below the expected savings with the measure for the coming years:
- 2025: R$2.2 billion
- 2026: R$9.7 billion
- 2027: R$14.5 billion
- 2028: R$20.6 billion
- 2029: R$27.8 billion
- 2030: R$35 billion
