The optimism that reigned among the ranks of the Sinn Fein –for decades the political arm of the terrorists of the IRA– has blurred in recent months in Ireland. Internal scandals and difficulties in connecting with a heterogeneous electorate have squandered the comfortable advantage that the surveys and have removed the possibility of achieving victory in the general elections this Friday, in which the current center-right coalition is scheduled to renew its mandate. The latest forecasts place the Irish Republican Party as the third force with 19% of the votes, far from the 36% attributed to it in mid-2022.
The fall of Sinn Féin in the polls, evidenced in the bad results of the recent local and European elections, represents a turn in the upward trend of the party since the signing of the Good Friday Agreements in 1998. The party had enjoyed sustained growth in the last two decades thanks to the disengagement with the terrorism of the IRA and the changes promoted by its leader, Mary Lou McDonaldwho took over from the historic leader Gerry Adams in 2018. Although McDonald has maintained his commitment to the reunification of Ireland, the focus of his proposals has shifted to other issues that have captured the attention of the left-wing electoratesuch as the protection of public services or access to a dwelling worthy.
Alternative to Government
This shift in the party’s list of priorities earned him a historic victory in the 2020 electionsin which he obtained 25% of the votes. A result that forced the two major parties, the Fine Gaelic and the Fianna Fáilto put aside their historical rivalries to form a grand coalition and thus exclude the republican formation from the Government. Although Sinn Féin did not manage to govern then, it did emerge as the only alternative to the center-right Executive, hit by the crisis of the inflation and the increase of precio of the home. According to a report from the Irish Parliament, between 2012 and 2022 the purchase price and rent of real estate has increased by 75% and 90% respectively. A situation that has not been able to compensate for the rise in wages27% in the same period.
The left-wing proposals of McDonald’s party, including the rise of taxes to the most richkept him as a clear favorite in the polls during the first half of the legislature, but the rise of speeches against the immigration have put training in a compromised situation in recent months. The arrival of more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees to the country, as well as the increase in applications for asylumhave forced Sinn Féin to rethink its proposals on this matter, but its leaders are having difficulty satisfying a heterogeneous electorate, which ranges from the socially conservative working classes to young left-wing voters more open to the arrival of foreigners.
Internal scandals
The coming to light of alleged cases of concealment of party members accused of child abuse They have shaken the formation even more. One of them affected the former press secretary Michael McMonaglewho was sentenced to nine months in prison in early November for inciting several children to keep sexual relations with the. The leader of Sinn Féin has assured that her party has “solid disciplinary procedures” and has insisted that “there is nothing more important than protecting the safety and well-being” of minors, but recent controversies have deteriorated the image of Sinn Féin. the formation, which is seeing the possibility of governing for the first time on both sides of the border disappear and of putting on the table the call for a referendum of reunification.
Added to the loss of support predicted by the polls is the good moment of the two main parties in the coalition, which are positioned as the first and second forces with just over 20% of the votes, respectively. The current prime minister, Simon Harrishas managed to regain some of the voters’ trust in his party, Fine Gael, after the unexpected resignation of his predecessor in office, Leo Varadkarlast March. Despite having had some setbacks during the campaign, Harris is the favorite to achieve victory and revalidate the coalition with Fianna Fáil, once again ending Sinn Féin’s aspirations to form a Government for the first time in Ireland.
