After a year of constant crossfire on both sides of the border and almost two months of israeli invasion of the southern Lebanonthe weapons have finally given themselves a break between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. He cease-fire mediated by USA y Francestill provisional but intended to be permanent, has been maintained since its entry into force early Wednesday morning despite some incidents at the border. Thousands of Lebanese did not even wait for sunrise to try to return to their homes, or what remains of them, while some displaced Israelis expressed disappointment with the terms of the agreement. The cessation of hostilities portends a temporary period of calm, perhaps several years, but as history insists on demonstrating, it will be difficult to give rise to lasting stability without a broader regional agreement or diplomatic advances on the issues that poison the region, such as the Palestinian question.
“Without a comprehensive deal involving Iran, the ceasefire risks being a temporary measure,” American University of Beirut political scientist Imad Salamey told Al Jazeera. “Even under these circumstances, the ceasefire fire may not buy more than a few years of relative peace”. Below are some keys to the situation on the ground and the great challenges that are emerging in the immediate future.
This time Hezbollah has little reason to invoke “divine victory” which he claimed in 2006, the last time the parties faced each other. Israel has not only beheaded its leadership, starting with its charismatic secretary general Hassan Nasralabut has severely degraded its military capabilitieswhile his espionage was infiltrated to the core in the organization chart of the pro-Iranian militia, as demonstrated with the devastating pager attack. “We have managed to set them back decades,” the Israeli prime minister said yesterday, Benjamin Netanyahuafter announcing the ceasefire, approved by his security cabinet almost unanimously. It remains to be seen whether the Jewish State is capable of transforming its tactical successes into something resembling a strategic victorywhich could depend on how the terms of the ceasefire are implemented.
Because Hezbollah is weakened, but nowhere near sunk. Until the last day, it has not stopped launching missiles and drones at Israel. Or to fight in hand-to-hand combat with ambushes in the border towns from southern Lebanon. Not in vain, at the beginning of the month the Hebrew newspaper ‘Yedioth Ahronoth’ published that in more than a month of ground invasion, Israeli troops had not managed to take full control of a single town in the region. And they deployed up to five divisions, or about 50,000 soldiers. “It is known that the Israeli Army has wanted an agreement for some time,” says Karim Makdisi, a professor of international politics at the American University of Beirut. “If there is a ceasefire it is not because of US pressure, but because Hezbollah has maintained its position and has continued launching missiles against Israel,” he adds to this newspaper.
From the details that have been leaking, the agreement approved on Tuesday looks very similar to the Security Council resolution 1,701 of the UN that ended the 2006 war. A resolution that neither party ended up complying with. Unlike then, this time the disarmament of Hezbollahbut adds a sort of supervision mechanism led by Washington and Paris to ensure that the terms of the agreement are met.
The fundamental idea is that Hezbollah transfers its weapons and its fighters to the north of the Litani Riverlocated about 30 kilometers from the Israeli border. It will have 60 days to do so, the same time window contemplated for the Israeli military to leave Lebanon. On the border strip the Lebanese army that, together with the UN interposition force (UNIFIL), must ensure that the Shiite militia actually withdraws from the vicinity of the border.
For everything to come to fruition, it will be essential to Hezbollah cooperation, given the weakness of the Lebanese Army and the reluctance of its commanders to try to coerce the Shiite militia. Nor does UNIFIL have a mandate to carry out police work. And one of the problems is that many of the Hezbollah cadres come from the southern Shiite towns. Tens of thousands of militants with their families: will they agree to renounce everything and go into exile in their own country? A parliamentarian from the Party of God has already said that Hezbollah intends help displaced people to return to their homes – or what remains of them – in the south and participate in the reconstruction work.
More in the medium term, both the US and France, the United Kingdom and Israel aspire tostrengthen the capabilities of the Army Lebanese to turn it into an effective force that is capable of eventually replacing Hizbullah as guarantor of the country’s security. “These countries want the current head of the Army, Joseph Aounbecomes presidentwhich could lead to a more prominent role for the military,” explains Makdisi. “But that could cause a lot of problems because the Army’s popularity derives from its impartiality and if it ends up being perceived as an instrument of foreign powers, that could generate a lot of instability.”
The Lebanese have very difficult months and years ahead, given the extent of the massive destruction bequeathed by Israel. 37 border villages in the south have been completely wiped off the map, according to Al Jazeera, while in Beirut, Nabatieh o Number Entire neighborhoods have been destroyed. To the more than one million people displaced since the beginning of the land invasion on October 1 and just over 3,700 deaths, the country must add a economic invoice of more than 8.5 billion dollars, according to World Bank estimates. A figure that only includes the cost of the destruction of this war. Other estimates raise the costs to 20 billion.
And all of this will have to be faced by a Bankrupt state. With a rampant hyperinflationa debt hardly sustainable and an economy that, according to the World Bank, has contracted by 34% since 2019. Or what is the same, it has lost the equivalent of 15 years of economic growth. So much will be at the mercy of the foreign aidas happened after the 2006 war. At that time, Iran played a prominent role in the reconstruction, providing up to $12,000 to the families of the displaced to help them find temporary housing. Now this battle between Iran, the West and the Sunni states of the Persian Gulf is destined to be repeated. And its result could condition the future of the country.
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