And what dream is this? 100% electric vehicles sold — and the end of production of combustion vehicles. But those who buy are eager. Who sells too. And then there is China – which has a different relationship “with the rules”
There’s a problem to solve: we need to electrify our cars, all of them, sooner rather than later, for the good of the environment. Europe 27 wants it. The United Kingdom, which was once member state number 28 but is no longer, also wants to. However, the problem is not easy to resolve: the automobile market has stagnated, few cars are sold and those that are sold are more from the fossil fuel than from the future.
But let’s talk about the British – who have facts to share with the Portuguese (and others). In 2023, Rishi Sunak, leader of the then British Conservative government, promised (for 2024) “one of the most advanced and ambitious regulatory systems in the world”. And the year 2024 began in the United Kingdom between the chimes of Big Ben and an obligation imposed on automakers in the country: a minimum quota on the sale of electric vehicles.
Sunak’s word: by the end of 2024, 22% of new car sales had to be electric, rising to 33% in 2025, to 38% in 2027, to 52% in 2028, to 66% in 2029 and to 80% in 2030. In 2035 the objective was completeness: 100% of electric vehicles sold — and the end of production of combustion vehicles.
Well, the government has changed. Rishi Sunak has fallen. Keir Starmer, from the Labor Party, has been prime minister since July. And the sale of electric cars, the demand from the British, has even been growing. In October, 29,800 were sold, for example. In September, a record 56,300 electric cars were sold. And electric vehicles currently represent 18.1% of sales. Even so, manufacturers believe it is impossible (this year and, above all, in future years) to meet the quotas imposed on them — and will pay heavy fines if this does not happen.
This week, Stellantis, owner of Fiat, Peugeot, Citroën or Opel, said it would close a factory in Luton. There are at least 1,100 jobs lost. Jobs that will add to the 800 that Ford will cut over the next three years. Another brand, Jaguar — a British manufacturer — announced that it will stop selling new cars (although it will sell used cars) in the United Kingdom in 2025 and 2026, the year in which it introduces a new electric model.
Also according to Reuters, the threats (of closures, layoffs and, guaranteed, default) from manufacturers worry the United Kingdom government, which has already spoken out, through the voice of the Minister of Finance, Rachel Reeves – who said that the Executive has just launch a consultation “to analyze the plans we inherited from the previous Government”. The same is to say, and Rachel Reeve has said, that “it’s really important to make sure that we get the right balance and that we have the right support for the automotive sector, for the car industry, in Britain.”
The final reading could be: Keir Starmer’s Government will refuse to meet its targets. Because, returning to the words of the Finance Minister, “we want people to buy electric vehicles, but we want to keep jobs”.
What about Europe, what about the Union? And Portugal?
The case is not entirely different. There are goals. And there is no sales () that guarantees that goals will be met. In the European Union, this year and until October, sales of electric vehicles fell 4.9% — in October, specifically, “only” 124,907 units were sold in 27 countries.
The biggest loss is in the “engine” of the European economy, Germany, with a fall of 26.6% — analysts say that the fall was driven by the Scholz government’s withdrawal of incentives for the purchase of these vehicles.
At the moment, in the EU, according to figures from ACEA, the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers, electric vehicles represent a share of 14.4%. Plug-in hybrid cars represent 7.7%, for example.
In Portugal, priority when purchasing a new car is still given to gasoline and diesel. Gasoline represents 30.8% of the market and diesel 7.6%. These are data from October. In the same month, 28.2% more electric vehicles were sold than in 2023. And, in the year to date, 14.7% more. Still, as in Europe, as in the United Kingdom, the goals are very far away.
According to the study “Electric Mobility in Portugal”, by Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics, Portugal will not reach carbon neutrality targets until 2035, when 36% of new cars sold must be electric, nor until 2050, when they have to be 100%. Even if from now on only electric vehicles are sold, far from the best international practices — although there are subsidies and tax credits — and, for example, there is a lack of fast and ultra-fast stations suitable for flows outside large cities.
In turn, the environmental association Zero, in the Portuguese case, has already come to pressure the Government to accelerate the goals, guaranteeing carbon neutrality, not in 2050 but as early as 2035. According to the association, the goal is “perfectly viable”, the Consumers see trams as “attractive”, but we still lack, as the Catholic study mentioned, practical improvements, particularly in terms of charging. Still, it is Zero who tells us: “Contrary to what is often said, by 2035, 100% electric vehicles will be much cheaper to buy and use than polluting combustion cars”.
“An optimistic view might be 1/3 electric to 2/3 combustion”
Hélder Barata Pedro, general secretary of the Automobile Association of Portugal (ACAP), “thinking even more about Europe than about the United Kingdom”, says that the position of the manufacturers’ associations is “clear”: the goals are to be met but they will not be achieved be fulfilled. “Decarbonization targets have been set, we want to meet them, but if it is impossible to meet them — because we cannot force consumers to buy cars — we cannot be the only sector that, in non-compliance, will pay heavy fines.” More: “By 2025 there will be goals to meet. The industry prepared itself, there are 320 electric models — compared to only 50 in 2020 — but the European market has stagnated.”
The vision of José Couto, president of the Association of Manufacturers for the Automotive Industry (AFIA), is similar. The goals are more ambitious than the market response. “We learn about what is happening in the United Kingdom, but especially in the European markets — and the Portuguese market is closer to the European ones, in terms of sales and targets. And the idea we are left with is that it will be very difficult to reach 2035 and meet that proportion of new electric cars sold. It will definitely be lower.” For José Couto, this is the possible optimism: “An optimistic vision might be 1/3 electric to 2/3 combustion. But even for that we are dependent on the market’s response — and no one can predict what will happen.”
For Gonçalo Tomé, vice-president of the Portuguese Plastics Industry Association (APIP), which includes companies that produce components for the automobile industry, the European Union was “avant-garde” in relation to environmental policies, including in the automotive sector, “but sometimes suffers from some unrealism.” “The European Union is ‘avant-garde’ in relation to environmental policies, including in the automotive sector, but sometimes it errs on the side of unrealism. Specific goals are very difficult to achieve today. It’s not worth dramatizing, but we must be prepared. And one problem is competition. In the year 2000, China produced 3% of the world’s cars. Soon it will be 30%. And they don’t just produce Chinese cars. And Europe watched impassively. Perhaps, if it had the speed of China, our goals would be achievable.”
José Couto, from AFIA, calls for adaptation. “Adjustment to reality, to the economy, to consumption.” And he insists on the threat coming from the East. “Review goals? Yes, it is also necessary. And it is necessary to understand, not ignore, that there are new players in Europe, particularly coming from China, and that perhaps they are not as concerned about meeting their goals – as the Europeans do. The likelihood of them not complying is high.”
Still for José Couto, and in an analysis from “the point of view of component manufacturers”, whenever a brand, a car manufacturer, says it will close a factory — as is now the news in the United Kingdom and other European nations —, “of course it worries the sector”.
Hélder Barata Pedro, from ACAP, believes that it is the response from Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, that results in the increase or decrease in concern. “Just this Wednesday she mentioned that the automobile industry is very important and that she herself will follow closely, personally monitor what will happen next. It’s at least an important sign. And manufacturers, suppliers and dealers are waiting with bated breath. Electrification is fundamental but it lacks more attractiveness.”
How to be more attractive?
“Public authorities have to organize themselves. Firstly, there needs to be wider charging coverage, a much wider network. If not, there is ‘anxiety’ among potential buyers. If they don’t have anywhere to load the trams, they don’t buy the trams. On the other hand, the purchase incentive policy needs to be even greater. If this, this specifically, does not change, it will be very complicated”, predicts Barata Pedro.
