Just like any purchase and sale, any partnership contract between two ordinary individuals from the civilian population, complex agreements with dozens of ramifications also follow the same logic in geopolitics, they only become reality if they are advantageous to both parties. A house owner would never agree to pass his deed to a person who did not pay the fair and required sum of money, in the same way, terrorists would not accept an agreement that did not benefit them circumstantially in the current war.
The Israelis have been fighting on 7 different battlefronts in the last 14 months, the physical and psychological exhaustion of the army and the population of , makes even the most conservative wings of society rethink the real need for such a long conflict. Politically, since the attack on October 7, 2023, Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to protect his own people has been placed in doubt, his approval ratings have fallen drastically and the opposition, from the center-right to the most radical left, is already thinking about future electoral framework of the country without the current prime minister.
In foreign policy, the war that began legitimately, following the basic precept of Israel’s defense of its borders and sovereignty, turned into the biggest imbroglio in Israeli foreign relations in almost 3 decades, following the IDF’s disproportionate response. The constant loss of support, even from faithful allies in the past, in addition to the paralysis of peace negotiations with old enemies, meant that years of good diplomacy exercised by the State of Israel went down the drain in a few months. Added to all this, we have the greatest drama of all, the thousands of human losses on both sides, where entire families were torn apart by acts of terrorism, kidnappings, bombings and the complete loss of an entire life built.
Hezbollah’s Shiite terrorists saw their greatest weakening happen in a record time of 1 month, 3 weeks and 4 days. Iran’s largest proxy, with a paramilitary army of tens of thousands of men, has lost hundreds, perhaps thousands, of its top terrorists, including its influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated in September. Being the “favorite son” among all the proxies of the Tehran government, Hezbollah hoped to have another outcome for this war, where Israel, weakened by the war in Gaza, would be hit harder by the group. Although they are still strong in many positions in southern Lebanon, the destruction brought to the country by this conflict made Hezbollah recognize that the moment to continue attacking Israel should be replaced by the fight for its own survival.
In this scenario, fatigue, exhaustion in the international media, lack of ammunition, death of leaders and strong pressure from almost all nations in the world, meant that an agreement, interpreted as advantageous for both parties, was signed. The moment is certainly one of great relief for millions of Lebanese and Israelis who will be able to return to their homes, as they are already doing, before the Christian, Jewish or Muslim festivities at the end of the year. However, there are many people who are extremely hopeful that this positive ceasefire seal means the promising start to an ongoing peace process on all fronts.
The United States, together with Egyptian mediators, are already pressuring Hamas to follow a similar path so that they also seek a temporary pause in the war with Israel. For those more realistic, however, any agreement beyond the one made with Hezbollah is highly unlikely to be signed in the near future. With the burden of a war not concluded as he would like, Netanyahu knows that demonstrations of weakness, in a region known worldwide for the violence of its wars, have their limits, and therefore Israel’s powerful army will need to give specific responses to its own citizens and their other enemies, saying that they remain firm in their objectives.
The advancement of diplomacy, the creation of the United Nations and dozens of other multilateral bodies have brought us great advances in maintaining peace on many occasions. Even though they did less than our unrealistic expectations, such organizations helped most nations to get through the long Cold War without it turning into a global conflict, in addition to expanding communication channels that actually reduce the time of wars and considerably reduce the number of deaths and injuries.
Unfortunately, for some parts of our planet, the understanding of certain concepts is simply very different. The Middle East is one of the most fascinating and complex regions in the world, but where the dream of complete peace has been seen as an illusion for more than 3000 years, whether for its inhabitants or for mere observers. The ceasefire in Lebanon is extremely important for millions, but sadly only a daydream of calm amid the constant storms in the.
