Ireland goes to the polls this Friday to elect their representatives in Parliament and the Government of the next five years. A date that occurs in an environment of growing social tensionwith a part of the population having increasing difficulties in accessing a dwelling and with a general rejection of the current policies of reception of immigrants. Prime Minister Simon Harris aims to renew the center-right coalition that has governed the country since 2020, formed by his party, the Fine Gaelicalong with its historical rival, the Fianna Fáiland the Greens. In front of them they will have a Sinn Fein –for decades the political arm of the IRA terrorists– which is in low numbers after more than three years comfortably leading the polls.
Everything indicates that both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – with a vote estimate close to 20% each – will revalidate their government agreementwhich included an alternation in the position of prime minister in the last legislature. Both Harris and Fianna Fáil leader Michéal Martin they have avoided attacking each other during the campaign, in what has been interpreted as a clear sign of his intentions. However, Harris’ stumbles in recent days, especially her anger in front of the cameras with a social worker who criticized her for not having done anything to protect her sector, have cost her some points in the polls and could put difficulties for the three partners to achieve the necessary majority of 88 representatives in Parliament.
Housing and immigration
Coalition leaders trust that the latest measures approved by the Government will help convince the electorate. Harris has included a tax reduction in the latest budgets and has benefited from the ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) against Apple, issued in September, which has forced the American multinational to disburse 14,000 million to the Irish State to compensate for the tax advantages received in the country. The Executive has also committed to build more than 300,000 homes before 2030 to contain the rise in prices, one of the issues that most worries Irish people along with immigration.
The current prime minister has promised greater “firmness” in asylum policies, in an attempt to contain the escalation of violence encouraged by far-right agitators in the last two years. The arrival of more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, as well as the increase by more than 50% of the asylum applications compared to 2023, they have provoked indignation in a sector of the population hit by the increase in the cost of living and the housing crisis. The attacks on hotels and other temporary immigrant accommodation have put the authorities on alert and given wings to independent candidates from extreme right in the constituencies most affected by these policies.
Sinn Féin debilitado
Despite growing discontent with the Government over housing prices and the arrival of refugees to the country, the nationalists of Sinn Féin have failed to capitalize on this outrage. The party led by Mary Lou McDonald It reached 36% of the voting intention in mid-2022, but internal scandals and the difficulties in positioning itself on immigration matters, due to its heterogeneous electoral base, have made the possibilities of taking over the Government of Ireland for the first time in its history. The party has managed to make a slight comeback in the polls in recent days and still has options to achieve a narrow victory – with around 20% of the votes – but even in this scenario will have many difficulties to put together a parliamentary majority that allows him to govern.
Sinn Féin’s few chances of success have removed the possibility that training achieves power simultaneously in Ireland and Northern Ireland. The appointment of the nationalist candidate, Michelle O’Neill, as chief minister in Belfast last February – in a region dominated until then by the British unionist parties – opened the doors to debate on reunification of Ireland through a referendum. A popular consultation that the representatives of Sinn Féin aspired to put on the table with two nationalist governments on both sides of the border, despite the fact that its celebration requires prior authorization from the British Parliament. If confirmed, the renewal of the center-right coalition after this Friday’s elections will put new wheels in the wheel for these aspirations.
