The offensive of Syrian rebel militias launched this Wednesday against the troops of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Asadarrived this Friday on the outskirts of Aleppothe second Syrian city, where there are fighting between opponents and the regime Damascus for the first time since 2016.
This latest rebel attack is led by the jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)former subsidiary of Al Qaeda in Syria who renounced international terrorism in 2017, and comes at a time of great weakness for Assad due to the partial withdrawal of the Syrian president’s allies, Iran and their related militias and Russiaof the conflict in the Arab country.
This attack represents, thus, the first major reactivation of the syrian civil warwhich had been stagnant and frozen since 2020when Türkiye —the supporter of the rebel militias— and Russia signed a cease-fire that although it did not serve to stop the bombings of Moscow and Damascus against the rebel civilian population, did manage to stop the offensives and large-scale attacks on the ground.
According to experts, the reason for starting this attack now, apart from Assad’s weakness, is Ankara. “This operation had been anticipated for weeks, and has been delayed to avoid any perception that its authors are aligned in any way with the military actions of Israel in Gaza y Lebanon“, explains the Turkish analyst Ömer Özkicilcikwhich continues: “The operation went ahead when Türkiye changed its initial position of opposing the attack and gave its green light. This change is due to the lack of progress in the conversations to normalize relations between Ankara and Damascus, in addition to the turkish frustration given the lack of Russian cooperation in enforcing its previous agreements in Syria.
Refugees and talks
For more than a decade, Türkiye It is the country in the world that most refugee population houses: more than three million people. With the economic crisis inflationary crisis that has been plaguing the country for years, a large part of the Turkish population now wants the Syrian refugees to return to their country, and is putting pressure on the government of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoganto reach an agreement with Assad on the matter.
To date, Assad has always refused to sit at the table with Erdogan until “Türkiye leaves Syrian territory” – in the words of the Turkish leader -. Ankara controls, with its own soldiers, several territories on the Syrian side of the border that the two countries share. And not only that: it is Türkiye that finances, arms and pays salaries of the Syrian rebel militias.
“Although Türkiye remains a passive observer In this operation, it recognizes the legitimacy of the rebels’ actions, says Özkizilcik. Turkish defense sources say the offensive will be limited to areas captured by pro-Assad forces in previous years.
